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Your Saturday Morning Prediction
I’ve digested various predictions throughout the week and have heard some interesting thoughts. Michigan hopped on their buses yesterday and drove over to Lansing for today’s game with the Michigan State Spartans. The 1-3 Michigan State Spartans. Let’s be honest, a few plays go the other way for both teams and State could be 3-1 and Michigan could be 2-2. BUT, ifs don’t count and reality is reality. Michigan rolls into this game at 4-0 and yea, 1-3 for MSU.
Michigan is 4-0 because they have talent on the field that makes plays – example) Tate Forcier throws a TD pass to Martavious Odoms with the game on the line against Indiana – a win is had by the Wolverines.
Michigan State is 1-3 because they haven’t made the plays – example) Kirk Cousins overthrows a for sure TD pass at Notre Dame for the win – then throws a bad interception when the game was on the line against Notre Dame – a loss is handed to the Spartans.
Today’s game will be determined by three factors:
- It’s a Rivalry and it’s in East Lansing: Granted, a bit of a lopsided one as Michigan leads the overall series 67-29-5. Sparty ended a five-game Michigan winning streak last year – taking the game in AA 35-21. The home team has one 12 of the last 17 games. Score a slight advantage for the Spartans here…
- The Weather: Cloudy with a 60 percent chance of showers toward the end of the game, temperatures between 49-52 degrees, winds at 13-15 mph. This obviously plays to Michigan’s advantage as their running game has been significantly stronger than that of the Sparty. Here is the Futurecast from Weather.com in a few hours…
Today's Weather
- Forcier’s Health: Michigan’s offense can move the ball with ease against a terrible MSU defense if Forcier is in the ball game. He brings a balanced attack that can lean run and pick away at the passing game with Forcier’s accuracy and ability to throw on the run. So this will be something that both teams will be watching as the game gets underway. Definite Michigan advantage if Forcier appears as though his shoulder is good to go.
Let’s take a look at some of the opinions and predictions from around the web this week…
Fox Sports – Aram Tolegian
Let’s be honest, Michigan’s win over Notre Dame (its only claim to fame this season) looks worse every week. The Irish are clearly nothing special. Yes, it was a great game. And because of that, it’s the only thing in people’s minds when they think of the ’09 Wolverines. Well, that’s a problem in perception, because, while better, Michigan isn’t “back”. It’s just simply ranked higher because its record forced the pollsters hands. Michigan State is a team that’s getting better week after week. If you compare their games against ND, Michigan State actually grades better because the Spartans were on the road, blew many opportunities and didn’t have the zebras clearly on their side as Michigan did when it hosted Notre Dame in Week 2. Michigan’s close call at home last week against Indiana is an ominous sign. Michigan State hands big brother its first loss on Saturday.
Collegefootballnews.com
Michigan State will not only end Michigan’s hot start, but it’ll get its second win in the rivalry in the last two years. Forcier always has a magical trick or two up his sleeve, but he’ll have to get the passing game going after the Wolverine defense allows too many early big plays to the dangerous Spartan receivers. Michigan will make a tremendous comeback and have a chance late to pull out the win, but won’t come through. CFN Prediction: Michigan State 34 … Michigan 31
StuartMandel
Upset Special: The remarkable resurrection of the Wolverines’ offense, led by freshman QB Tate Forcier, has overshadowed the fact that Michigan’s defense leaves a lot to be desired, as last week’s near-miss against Indiana showed. QB Kirk Cousins and the Spartans are desperate for a victory and more than capable of racking up yards.
THE Prediction
When Michigan has the ball
When Tate Forcier didn’t show up on the weekly Injury Report, Michigan fans breathed a little sigh of relief. Not that I don’t think it’d be interesting, and potentially sweet, to watch Denard Robinson take snaps for a whole game – but having Forcier in there stabilizes the offensive attack. Michigan is going to lean run but maintain a balanced attack. I think Rich Rod is going to try and get his squad in short yard second down situations. In a hostile environment, especially if the weather is a factor, 2nd and 3rd and long situations could be consistent drive killers. I know MSU’s D has been terrible up to this point, but because it’s a rivalry game – I won’t necessarily say Michigan’s O can have a field day.
Three offensive players I look to have a big impact:
- Kevin Koger – This guy is just too talented to not get him the ball. I think you’ll see Koger catch some short passes out in the flat – similar to his catch in the ND game.
- Darryl Stonum – He had a big impact last week in the kicking game against IU – I expect to see Stonum carry over that momentum into this game against the Spartans.
- Brandon Minor – I know Carlos Brown has been the playmaker, but Minor has the ability to break tackles and bust through the line a bit quicker than Brown. See the Notre Dame game, when Minor is in the ballgame holes seem to open up from him.
When Michigan’s on Defense
Michigan State’s strength is aligned with Michigan’s biggest weakness – need I say? The secondary is not well, not good, thank God for Donovan Warren. MSU has playmakers on the outside in Dell, Cunningham and White. It will be critical that Michigan pressures Kirk Cousins in the pocket. If he has all day back there, MSU is going to put some serious points on the board. Let’s hope the dudes on D can force some turnovers as well – they have been spending an awful lot of time on the field lately.
Three defensive players I look to have a big impact:
- Brandon Graham – GET A SACK ALREADY! Can you believe ol’ boy doesn’t have a sack yet? His presence on the field has no doubt been very effective, but he hasn’t been able to get that stat sheet rollin’ yet. I think BG today gets that going and he has a couple sacks and possibly a BG forced fumble.
- Stevie Brown – Stevie has played relatively well this year so far and I look for that to continue. I think GERG will bring him off the edge a few times and he’ll get to Kirk Cousins. His speed is showing in his new linebacker role.
- Donovan Warren – He’s consistent. He makes plays and takes care of one-half of the field. Granted, this will put added pressure on JT Floyd starting at the other corner, but D. Warren is having his best year as a Wolverine and I look for that to continue today.
THE FINAL SCORE
All week I’ve seen every prediction put both teams scoring 30+ points and why not? Both teams have been scoring a lot of points and both defenses have looked like BAD. I like to be different, I’m trying to think of what may happen to keep this game’s point total lower. The weather? Could the rain speed the clock up, turn the ball over and keep teams out of the end zone? I don’t know. I think Michigan’s offense is consistent all day and puts up 34 points. Michigan’s D will struggle, but will effectively keep Sparty out of the endzone. Going against the grain – I’m saying Michigan beats Michigan State 34 – 23.
A set back, but Michigan's future is bright. Go Blue
Agreed – would have been a great way to pull that one out – a comeback in OT. But hey, it's a young team with a very bright future. Bumps and bruises are to be had.