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Yards, Points, and Predictions: Iowa
Previously (last week): Yards, Points, and Predictions: Purdue.
Check last week’s post for the methodology and exactly where the numbers are coming from.
Looking Back: Purdue
So last week was our first go at using the info to output an actual score. Here’s what we said:
Purdue Total Offense (P=Predicted, A=Actual)
P: 342
A: 311
Purdue Points
P: 21
A: 14
Michigan Total Offense
P: 411
A: 535
Michigan Points
P: 31
A: 36
Not too bad. The data I used gave me a closer outcome than what we happily experienced on Saturday. When I first ran the numbers and got the friendly score of Michigan 31 Purdue 21 – - I thought it was slick as it just as easily could have turned out to be Michigan 32 Purdue 19, which is just a less probable score. I also threw this in there – which wasn’t far off! …
Don’t forget that whole the-football-isn’t-round bit and disclaimer when the score turns out to be Michigan 44 Purdue 18.
ON WITH IT.
IOWA TIME
I still can’t believe Iowa lost to Minnesota, the dreadful, dreadful team from Minnesota that lost to teams I didn’t know existed from the Dakota states. This is a big test for Michigan – 50% of that test is simply because this game is being played in Iowa City.
Michigan on D
As you can see – the below table speaks to when Michigan is on defense. Mr. Mattison ball. Iowa’s offense is producing an average of 402.63 yards per game – good for 57th nationally and 5th in the conference. On average, Michigan’s defense is holding opponents to 84.7% of their average production in all other games, excluding vs. Michigan. So, you guessed it…
402.63 * 84.7% = 341 yards predicted (allowed by Mich. D / gained by Iowa O)
Michigan on O
Below, the offensive table. Where Al Borges calls plays where you’re not sure whether you want to pull your hair out or thank Mr. Borges for making such a play call. Michigan’s offense is averaging 463.14 yards per game, which is good for 21st nationally and 2nd in the conference. On average, Michigan’s offense is producing 119.53% of their opponents average allowed yards per game, excluding vs. Michigan. Iowa’s defense is giving up 402.25 yards per game on average. Same routine…
402.25 * 119.53% = 481 yards (Gained by Mich. O / Allowed by Iowa D)
The Outcome
Michigan’s yard per point measure currently sits at 13.36 yards per point scored this season (12.72 in wins, 17.86 in the loss to MSU).
481 yards / 13.36 = 36 points for Michigan
Iowa’s yard per point measure is an unimpressive 21.35 yards per point scored (12.23 in wins, 38.16 in losses).
341 yards / 21.35 = 16 points for Iowa
MICHIGAN 36
IOWA 16
Last week, I thought a 31 to 21 predicted win over Purdue was spot on. I don’t see Michigan beating Iowa by 20 points. Maybe at home, but not on the road. Then again, Minnesota happened. Who knows. Go Blue.
