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Yards, Points, and Predictions: Illinois
If you haven’t seen the predictor model I use for this post – you can go here for a little explanation of the methodology. Long story short, I’m using Michigan’s total yards gained and allowed averages for each game played this season, combined with each of Michigan’s opponents average yards gained and allowed through 9 or 10 games to date. Michigan’s performances vs. its opponent’s averages yields a measure of how Michigan will perform based on statistical typicals. For example, if Michigan on average holds its opponents to 85% of their offensive production – I’m putting that figure up against it’s next opponents’ average offensive production to predict how many yards Illinois will gain vs. Michigan this week Review the tables farther down in the post and it will be clear, promise!
Here’s the outcomes so far. YPP is Yards, Points, and Predictions…
| Opponent | Mich Total O | Mich Total D | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue Actual | 535 | 311 | 36-14 | W |
| Purdue YPP | 411 | 342 | 31-21 | W |
| Iowa Actual | 323 | 302 | 16-24 | L |
| Iowa YPP | 481 | 341 | 36-16 | W |
Green font is indicative of accuracy and red is the opposite. Black font is ‘ehh – not close not far off kind of thing.
ON WITH IT, RIGHT?
Illinois TIME
So, Illinois is coming off of their bye week. Who knows what ol’ Zooker has been cooking up in the Zooker kitchen for the past couple of weeks. Does anyone realize how good this Illinois defense has been? Allowing 280 yards on defense per game is impressive. Statistically-speaking the 2nd best defense (Michigan St.’s D is 2nd nationally in Total Yards) Michigan’s offense will have faced to date.
Michigan on D
As you can see – the below table speaks to when Michigan is on defense. The Illini offense is producing an average of 402.56 yards per game – good for 55th in the nation and 5th in conference (Iowa’s total offense going into last week was very similar at 402.63 yards per game, which was 57th nationally and 5th in the conference at the time). On average, Michigan’s defense is holding opponents to 83.01% (improved from 84.7% after last week’s round of data) of their average production, sans opponents’ matchup with Michigan. To the table we go:
402.56 * 83.01% = 334 yards predicted (allowed by Mich. D / gained by Illinois O)
Michigan on O
Below, the offensive table. This is what I said last week – and I’m rather certain it still stands…
Where Al Borges calls plays where you’re not sure whether you want to pull your hair out or thank Mr. Borges for making such a play call.
Michigan’s offense is averaging 445.63 yards per game, which is good for 28th nationally (down from 21st prior to the Iowa loss) and 2nd in the conference. On average, Michigan’s offense is producing 114.37%, down from 119.53% prior to Iowa, of their opponents average allowed yards per game. Illinois’s defense is giving up 280.11 yards per game on average (!), which is good for 6th in the country (!). Numbers out the window – this is the best defensive unit Michigan faced all season. Same routine…
280.11 * 114.37% = 320 yards (Gained by Mich. O / Allowed by Illinois D)
The Outcome
Michigan’s yard per point measure currently sits at 14.12 yards per point scored this season, up from 13.36 after Iowa.
320 yards / 14.12 = 23 points for Michigan
The Illini’s yard per point measure is an unimpressive 21.18 yards per point scored (13.82 in wins, 35.9 in losses). Man, when Illinois loses – they ain’t scoring many points.
334 yards / 21.18 = 16 points for Illinois
MICHIGAN 23
ILLINOIS 16
There are stat-defying losses and last week was certainly one of those. Michigan’s offense underperformed in all phases and Iowa’s defense over-performed – hence an outcome that lends zero credence to any statistical trends and tendencies. This week – we’ll see if Illinois is consistent with play through 9 games. As always, who knows. Go Blue.
