.jpg)
Yards, Points, and Predictions: Nebraska
Previously: Purdue, Iowa, Illinois.
If you haven’t seen the predictor model I use for this post – you can go here for a little explanation of the methodology.
Here’s the outcomes so far. “YPP” in the table is Yards, Points, and Predictions…
| Opponent | Mich Total O | Mich Total D | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue Actual | 535 | 311 | 36-14 | W |
| Purdue YPP | 411 | 342 | 31-21 | W |
| Iowa Actual | 323 | 302 | 16-24 | L |
| Iowa YPP | 481 | 341 | 36-16 | W |
| Illinois Actual | 362 | 214 | 31-14 | W |
| Illinois YPP | 320 | 334 | 23-16 | W |
| Nebraska Actual | ||||
| Nebraska YPP | 405 | 322 | 29-24 | W |
Green font is indicative of accuracy and red is the opposite. So, this week I’m putting parameters around what is accurate. If YPP is within 50 yards of Actual, it’s green. Also, if YPP is within 5 points, it’s green. If YPP is outside of 100 yards, it’s red. If YPP is outside of 10 points, it’s red. Black font is ‘ehh – not close not far off kind of thing.
ON WITH IT, RIGHT?
NEBRASKA TIME
Nebraska just dealt with the Sandusky mess in their own right – beating Penn State on the road last weekend 17-14. That was a game that I was excited to witness – due to the fiasco of the entire situation, but I quickly learned that the game itself was dismal, boring, and had no chance at keeping my attention.
Michigan on D
As you can see – the below table speaks to when Michigan is on defense. The Nebraska offense is producing an average of 404.1 yards per game – good for 50th in the nation and 4th in conference. Going into the game, Michigan’s last three opponents’ offenses have been nationally ranked at 57th, 55th, and now 50th with Nebraska. On average, Michigan’s defense is holding opponents to 79.67% of their average production (the ‘average production’ metric does not include each opponents game vs. Michigan for a proper comparative analysis). In the past few weeks, Michigan’s D has improved from 84.7%, to 83.01% prior to the Illinois stomp, and now it’s down just under 80%. To the table we go:
404.1 * 79.67% = 322 yards predicted (allowed by Mich. D / gained by Nebraska O)
Michigan on O
Below, the offensive table. Michigan’s offense is averaging 436.33 yards per game, which is good for 33rd nationally (down from 21st prior to the Iowa loss) and 3rd in the conference. On average, Michigan’s offense is producing 115.05% of their opponents average allowed yards per game. Nebraska’s defense is giving up 352 yards per game on average, which is good for 38th in the country. This defensive unit isn’t as solid as it was hyped up to be prior to the season. Same routine…
352 * 115.05% = 405 yards (Gained by Mich. O / Allowed by Nebraska D)
The Outcome
Michigan’s yard per point measure currently sits at 13.88 yards per point scored this season.
405 yards / 13.88 = 29 points for Michigan
The Huskers’s yard per point measure is an unimpressive 13.34 yards per point scored (12.16 in wins, 18.07 in losses).
322 yards / 13.34 = 24 points for Nebraska
MICHIGAN 29
Nebraska 24
Go Blue.
Being a michigander and living in Nebraska, I have one thing to say…. beat the hell out of the cornhuskers. If you could hear what they use to say about the big 10 conference vs. big 12…. not to mention the comments of," we will show the big 10 how to play good football"….yep, I can only pray a little humility will go a long way. As a wolverine fan, I have endured the ups and downs of football seasons. I can also say, I have always appreciated our big 10 opponets… so, my good friends from ann arbor, will you teach these newcomers some manners… we are a family here… don't mess with our brothers that will cause you pain… only we can mess with them but it is always with respect. please stop knocking down my michigan flag!
I understand living in enemy territory, as I do my things in Cincinnati. You should have shared some of what "they used to say" about the B1G.
Yea. You lost me a bit there with the rest.