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Yards, Points, and Predictions: Ohio State
Previously: Purdue, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska.
If you haven’t seen the predictor model I use for this post – you can go here for a little explanation of the methodology. The takeaway in doing this is more-so in regards to understanding how Michigan performs statistically versus its opponents – and what kind of picture it paints for the next game on the schedule. Predictions from a points standpoint in football are usually bogus because we are talking about football and points can come in different ways – so remember the takeaway!
Here’s the outcomes so far. “YPP” in the table is Yards, Points, and Predictions…
| Opponent | Mich Total O | Mich Total D | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue Actual | 535 | 311 | 36-14 | W |
| Purdue YPP | 411 | 342 | 31-21 | W |
| Iowa Actual | 323 | 302 | 16-24 | L |
| Iowa YPP | 481 | 341 | 36-16 | W |
| Illinois Actual | 362 | 214 | 31-14 | W |
| Illinois YPP | 320 | 334 | 23-16 | W |
| Nebraska Actual | 418 | 260 | 45-17 | W |
| Nebraska YPP | 405 | 322 | 29-24 | W |
| Ohio Actual | ||||
| Ohio YPP | 369 | 247 | 28-16 | W |
Green font is indicative of accuracy and red is the opposite. So, this week I’m putting parameters around what is accurate. If YPP is within 50 yards of Actual, it’s green. Also, if YPP is within 5 points, it’s green. If YPP is outside of 100 yards, it’s red. If YPP is outside of 10 points, it’s red. Black font is ‘ehh – not close not far off kind of thing.
ON WITH IT, RIGHT?
OHIO TIME
Here’s what I said in this week’s Trend Report:
Ohio
Statewas at one point, 3 and 3 on the season. Ohio then proceeded to win it’s next three B1G games, two of which came at the hands of a ranked Illinois team and the vaunted Wisconsin team. People were begrudgingly talking about the potential looming division title for the once-maligned Buckeye team. After Ohio reached a 6-3 mark, they have proceeded to toss in a clunker at Purdue and lost a close one at home to Penn State.
Ohio was in the pits, crawled out, now they seem to be back in.
Michigan on D
As you can see – the below table speaks to when Michigan is on defense. The Ohio offense is producing an average of 315 yards per game – good for 108th(!) in the nation and last in the conference. On average, Michigan’s defense is holding opponents to 78.49% of their average production (the ‘average production’ metric does not include each opponents game vs. Michigan for a proper comparative analysis). Since the Purdue game, Michigan’s D has improved from 84.7%, to 83.01%, to just under 80% at 79.67% prior to the Nebraska stomp – now sitting at 78.49% before Ohio. To the table we go:
315 * 78.49% = 247 yards predicted (allowed by Mich. D / gained by Ohio O)
Michigan on O
Below, the offensive table. Michigan’s offense is averaging 434.50 yards per game, which is good for 34th nationally and 3rd in the conference. On average, Michigan’s offense is producing 115.87% of their opponents average allowed yards per game. Ohio’s defense is giving up 318.09 yards per game on average, which is good for 16th in the country. Ohio’s defense has somewhat been the rock that was supposed to steady this team and season. Same routine…
318.09 * 115.87% = 369 yards (Gained by Mich. O / Allowed by Ohio D)
The Outcome
Michigan’s yard per point measure currently sits at 13.28 yards per point scored this season, which has improved by .6 from 13.88 from a week ago.
369 yards / 13.28 = 28 points for Michigan
Ohio’s yard per point measure is 15.94 yards per point scored (11.43 in wins, 21.37 in losses).
247 yards / 15.95 = 16 points for Ohio
