With a BCS bowl bid in sight – it’s time to sit back and enjoy what this Team 132 has brought to the table.  MZone lays out who you need to be rooting for this weekend to ensure that this whole BCS thing can actually happen.  Here are your two biggies:

B1G Championship — # 13 Michigan State vs. # 15 Wisconsin

Root For: MSU (although if you can’t stomach the thought, it hopefully shouldn’t matter)

Why: A win by either should drop the loser behind Michigan.  That goes for Sparty even though they beat Michigan since this would be there third loss.   And who doesn’t like to see Sparty suffer?  However, from a strength of schedule standpoint, it might be more helpful if Sparty wins, thus dropping Wisco and beefing up U-M’s SOS.

SEC Championship — #1 LSU vs. #14 Georgia

Root For: LSU to win in a rout

Why: While it probably doesn’t matter in terms of the BCS Championship, it does matter big time for Michigan.  A Bulldog victory would be very bad.  And even a close Bulldog loss could be troublesome.  Thus, this is no time for Crazy Les to be on the sidelines.  We need focused, grass-eating Les.

Now, enjoy your Friday my friends.  Carve out a solid twenty minutes and watch the post-Ohio episode of Inside Michigan Football.  Also, enjoy a little reminder that Michigan is once again on top of the rivalry with Ohio:

Michigan 40  Ohio 34

Let’s quickly look back to mid-October of 2011.  As life would have it, Michigan started this season winning six straight.  Michigan’s next 60 minutes were to be spent in East Lansing.  At this point in the season we have no idea what this Michigan team is about, but Michigan was ranked 11th and undefeated.  The talk on blogs and message boards is essentially edgy, with most Michigan fans showing a tinge of defensiveness – vaguely, with little conviction, talking about how this 2011 Michigan team is different than the previous quick-start versions under Rich Rodriguez.

……….

Don’t forget, we’re talking about Michigan beating Ohio for the first time after seven straight years – seven straight years where the last week in November has been rude and nasty.

……….

So, as Michigan fans, myself included, pull together half-baked theories on why this Michigan team wasn’t going to fold – there was the game against Michigan State looming.  I had such a high level of excitement about the prospects of this team going 7 and 0 and beating a hated rival – that I assumed it just wasn’t going to happen and this Michigan team wasn’t quite … good.  After Michigan lost by two touchdowns via blown opportunities and flat getting beat, my rhetoric was all-knowing.  I knew this team was lucky to slip past Notre Dame and I became pessimistic about this team, Al Borges, and Denard Robinson.  Six and 0 starts don’t do your psyche any favors as a fan — you get greedy and one loss is seemingly not acceptable at the time.

Save the Purdue win, Michigan’s loss to Iowa further solidified the rhetoric about this team, which was largely evidenced on the field, that his Michigan team just wasn’t very good and the record is indicative of a twinkie-soft schedule.  As Michigan sat at 7 wins and 2 losses – I feared the final three games of the season could be brutal and we could be talking about a 7-5 Michigan team.

One week at a time – Michigan’s coaches, seniors, and underclassman proved something to the world of college football and to themselves.  Ryan Van Bergen, Junior Hemingway, David Molk, Martavious Odoms, Mike Martin, Troy Woolfolk, Kevin Koger, Will Heininger, Mark Huyge, and Steve Watson took on the challenge of making a difference and changing the recent trend of failure.  The seniors led Michigan into Illinois and largely dominated – yielding Michigan’s best road win of the season (Illinois has proven to be terrible actually, but it was big at the time!).

Two games left.  Michigan blew out Nebraska and if it wasn’t for one of the worst performances by a reply official that I have ever seen (was he the same guy at Iowa, no?) – we’d most likely be talking about a double-digit win over Ohio.

Similar to the week leading up to the Michigan State game – I, along with Michigan fans worldwide, had uber-crazy excitement about the prospects of this Michigan team reaching the 10-win threshold, positioning itself for a BCS bowl game, and finally beating the monkey off the program’s back in beating Ohio.  This time?  This time, there was no other way it could be.  Michigan was not going to be denied in front of nearly 115,000.  For the first time since late 2003, Michigan gets to enjoy the rest of the college football season and actually be in the discussion – and actually might finish out the season as a top 10 team.

Going into the game – I knew that Michigan winning the game against Ohio – was the only way things could happen.  The seniors have led the way in forming a team that has great chemistry, determination, and perseverance.  A team, a group of seniors, that will be remembered for enduring the bad, wading through the bullshit, and seizing the incredible opportunity they, as a team, earned.

10-2.__
Photo Cred: Det. News.

If you haven’t seen the predictor model I use for this post – you can go here for a little explanation of the methodology.  The takeaway in doing this is more-so in regards to understanding how Michigan performs statistically versus its opponents – and what kind of picture it paints for the next game on the schedule. Predictions from a points standpoint in football are usually bogus because we are talking about football and points can come in different ways – so remember the takeaway!

Here’s the outcomes so far.  “YPP” in the table is Yards, Points, and Predictions…

ON WITH IT, RIGHT?

OHIO TIME

Here’s what I said in this week’s Trend Report:

Ohio State was at one point, 3 and 3 on the season.  Ohio then proceeded to win it’s next three B1G games, two of which came at the hands of a ranked Illinois team and the vaunted Wisconsin team.  People were begrudgingly talking about the potential looming division title for the once-maligned Buckeye team.  After Ohio reached a 6-3 mark, they have proceeded to toss in a clunker at Purdue and lost a close one at home to Penn State.

Ohio was in the pits, crawled out, now they seem to be back in.

Michigan on D

As you can see – the below table speaks to when Michigan is on defense. The Ohio offense is producing an average of 315 yards per game – good for 108th(!) in the nation and last in the conference.  On average, Michigan’s defense is holding opponents to 78.49% of their average production (the ‘average production’ metric does not include each opponents game vs. Michigan for a proper comparative analysis).  Since the Purdue game, Michigan’s D has improved from 84.7%, to 83.01%, to just under 80% at 79.67% prior to the Nebraska stomp – now sitting at 78.49% before Ohio.  To the table we go:

315  * 78.49% = 247 yards predicted (allowed by Mich. D / gained by Ohio O)

Michigan on O

Below, the offensive table.  Michigan’s offense is averaging 434.50 yards per game, which is good for 34th nationally and 3rd in the conference.  On average, Michigan’s offense is producing 115.87% of their opponents average allowed yards per game.  Ohio’s defense is giving up 318.09 yards per game on average, which is good for 16th in the country.  Ohio’s defense has somewhat been the rock that was supposed to steady this team and season.  Same routine…

318.09 * 115.87% = 369 yards (Gained by Mich. O / Allowed by Ohio D)

The Outcome

Michigan’s yard per point measure currently sits at 13.28 yards per point scored this season, which has improved by .6 from 13.88 from a week ago.

369 yards / 13.28 = 28 points for Michigan

Ohio’s yard per point measure is 15.94 yards per point scored (11.43 in wins, 21.37 in losses).

247 yards / 15.95 = 16 points for Ohio

MICHIGAN 28
Ohio 16

Trending: the good.

It’s a…. It’s a Michigan Defense!!!  How can you not continue to celebrate what is an absolutely jaw-dropping and stunning turn-around by the Michigan defense.  This is now two weeks in a row where MZone said it all:

Are you getting tired of praising this defense yet?  Me neither.  Nebraska didn’t convert a third down until the third quarter.  Sit back for a moment and try to wrap your head around that.  Last year, U-M had the 110th ranked defense in the country (out of 120, in case you’re wondering).  Last year, this defense gave up 35.2 points per game, 107th in the country.  This year, Michigan has the #14 ranked defense in all the land and is giving up 15.6 per game, 6th best in the country!

Want a little more perspective?  In its 13 games last year, Michigan gave up 458 points.  Through 11 this season, they’ve surrendered 172.  In other words, to equal the punchline that was 2010, Michigan would have to give up 144 points — in EACH of its remaining two games (OSU and the bowl).

Folks, that’s not improvement, it’s mind boggling.   Because this wasn’t some talent-laden group coming back.  It was, well, the 110th ranked unit in the nation.

Oh how great it is.  Can’t believe it.  But I love it.  And I know you do too.

JG.  Jeremy Gallon is quite alright.  Gallon has been so consistent this season, that it’s a story that nobody really talks about anymore.  Jeremy Gallon was not a fan favorite after his efforts on the field in 2010.  Now?  Now, Gallon is an effective punt returner, solid as a perimeter player, and uses his okay speed to gain good yards in the open field.  This is what I’m sayin’ yo (via TTB):

Gallon isn’t exactly DeSean Jackson with the football in his hands, but he sure does have a way of gaining extra yards in the open field.  Whenever he catches the ball, I expect at least a couple people to miss tackles.

I hear Gallon is top jokester on the team as well.

Michigan is so back, so back.  Brady Hoke and that staff that he put together upon his hiring – have done a remarkable job with this team.  Who in the hell would have thought that Michigan would be playing for a potential BCS at-large bid in it’s final game versus Ohio. From our friends at maizeandgoblue:

This year is different.  While they still have a ways to go, Michigan has a talented team on both sides of the ball and last time I checked, Michigan has the #2 ranked recruiting class coming in for 2012.  The fact that the Wolverines are 9-2 going into Ohio week is also exciting.  This is the best record that Michigan has had going in to this game since 2006!  Not only that, but Michigan also has an excellent chance of finishing the regular season with double-digit wins.

But seriously, what a great trend to have towards the end of the season.  A Michigan team that is actually improving and not going backwards.  Losing at Iowa led to a nerve racking mentally in pushing on to the final three games of the season.  With two solid and rather dominant performances – there is no doubt this Michigan team is peaking in all three phases of the game. Michigan has an opportunity to improve it’s record to 8-0 at home.

Fitz Toussaint continues to be the bomb.  I believe I’ve said this for three straight weeks now, or rather since the Purdue game.  Toussaint is probably Michigan’s best back in a decade.  Not to slight the production of Mike Hart, but Fitz has talent that Michigan hasn’t seen in a decade.  This, from BWS:

Fitz Toussaint looks more and more like an NFL running back the more carries he gets. His lateral movement is incredible. There are only a few running backs in the country with a more effective cut than his. So long as he doesn’t fall in love with it and maintains it as a tool to run vertically, Toussaint is going to be the best Michigan running back in a long time.

After witnessing this guy of late, how could you disagree!?

Denard Robinson is … back?  I hate to say it that way, because I know he never was gone.  But, I say that Denard is back because he finally played against a worthy opponent and looked comfortable in the pocket, running the offense, and making decent to solid decisions.  Denard played good enough to net himself his sixth career B1G player of the week honor.  There were a couple plays, specifically on the 1st half-ending drive, where I thought Denard totally missed the running lane thus negating potential gains and points.

Trending: the not-so-good.

Memo to all Michigan fans worldwide:

Parts of my brain have gone into a deep freeze as of this past Saturday and I have zero input into this section.  Michigan turned over a new leaf.  Michigan has turned the pages, burnt the book, and is re-writing the pages in a new book.  This a week that Michigan fans are to enjoy – as it’s absence has been annoying and shitty.  A week that is full of hype.  A week that is full of positive discussion in regards to coaching football, playing football, and team #132 at Michigan. 

So, Michigan fans, I suppose some of you might want to talk about losing contain and allowing Nebraska to chunk out a 23 yarder, but I’m leaving it with the good.  A good that Michigan fans haven’t had the fortune of enjoying for several years.  A good that reflects forward and translates into a period of success and promise. 

Hail.  Go Blue.  F%#&in’ beat Ohio.

Around the B1G

Unfortunately, Michigan State celebrates winning the division at the hands of the hapless Indiana Hoosiers by a score of 55-3.  I had better programs to watch elsewhere – so I didn’t see any of this game, but it obviously wasn’t very close at any point in time.  Indiana spotted Michigan State 17 points in the first quarter, where therein the game is over.

Penn State win in Columbus, 20-14.  Ohio State was at one point, 3 and 3 on the season.  Ohio then proceeded to win it’s next three B1G games, two of which came at the hands of a ranked Illinois team and the vaunted Wisconsin team.  People were begrudgingly talking about the potential looming division title for the once-maligned Buckeye team.  After Ohio reached a 6-3 mark, they have proceeded to toss in a clunker at Purdue and lost a close one at home to Penn State.  Penn State’s performance is going to show Al Borges what he needs to do.  Eleven Warriors indirectly elaborates:

Penn State rushed for 239 yards yesterday on 39 attempts. That’s 6.1 per carry. That’s gross.

Penn State rushed for 188 yards in the first half averaging 9.0 yards per carry. That’s like parachute didn’t open gross.

The most agonizing thing about PSU’s ground success was that it came in such large chunks and with no frills. The Lions ran right at the Buckeyes and too often holes five yards wide opened, the RB got to the 2nd level then easily outran the members of the back seven.

Beat Ohio.  Do it already.

Wisconsin makes Illinois more miserable than they already were in a 28-17 ball game.  Illinois continues it’s slide from a once promising season that started with six straight wins.  From the AP:

Illinois outgained Wisconsin 301-285, but the turnovers — a fumble and three interceptions — combined with special teams mistakes doomed the Illini.

The Badgers scored on drives of 44, 39, 30 and 2 yards. Their first 14 points were set up by an Illinois turnover and a badly botched punt.

Not hard to see why Illinois lost and held a lighter to a golden opportunity at home.

Iowa beat Purdue 31-21.  If you are a Michigan fan – this was a game that was the furthest thing from interesting.  All I know is that Marvin McNutt had another huge day for Iowa and that’s about it for two of the B1G’s mediocre at best bowl teams.  Check that – Purdue has five wins and will be shooting for bowl eligibility next week against Indiana.

Northwestern continues to turn it around in beating Minnesota on their home turf by a score of 28-13.  Again, for Michigan fans, talk about a sleeper of a game.  Nice to see Northwestern turn around their season and get to bowl eligibility.

Michigan 45  Nebraska 17

So, what if you told me Michigan played late in November with a potential BCS bid on the line vs. a top 20 team – and won in dominating fashion by 28 points?  I would have told you to GTFO, because you are playing with my emotions!

Michigan came out on Saturday and took it to Nebraska in all three phases of the game in the aforementioned manner, dominating fashion – netting its first win over a ranked team in this fine season.  This is the type of game that Michigan hasn’t been capable of producing for years – a straight beat down of a top 20 opponent.  It wasn’t a shootout.  It wasn’t a struggle.  It was pure domination on offense, defense and special teams.

I want to repeat that, because it’s been so long since it’s been said: it was pure domination on offense, defense, and special teams.  Ok, I’m good now.

Michigan’s defense, once again, showed up and further solidified the new-found perception that the unit might be amongst the best in the country(!).  Nebraska had only eleven first downs, less than 300 total yards, and was 3-13 on third downs.  On top of that – Michigan notched in six tackles-for-loss, three sacks, three fumble recoveries, and a blocked punt.  The team in red reached the red zone twice all afternoon.  Rex Burkhead, Nebraska’s bruiser who averaged 107 yards per game coming into Saturday, could only muster 36 yards on the outing.

Michigan outgained Nebraska 418 to 260 and did some serious work in the time of possession department – possessing the ball for 41 minutes versus the Cornhuskers’ 19 minutes.  As Brady Hoke would tell you – your team’s best defense is when it’s offense is possessing the ball and working the game clock.

Before I drop in the box score – I feel obligated to say something about my disdain for Urban Meyer and Chris Speilman.  Do you feel like, just a little bit, the quality of our color commentators and announcers are like, terrible?  The vast majority of the first half was a play-by-play over-analysis of Denard’s play, how he should be coached, how he should play, etc.  Urban and Spielman have this weird thing going on where they both agree with each other and it takes the topic to a level of exhaustion – and it never seems to be an easy listen.  That’s all.  Thank you.  Bye bye now.

Box score:

                                    NEB     MICH
FIRST DOWNS...................       11       24
  Rushing.....................        7       14
  Passing.....................        4        6
  Penalty.....................        0        4
NET YARDS RUSHING.............      138      238
  Rushing Attempts............       31       61
  Average Per Rush............      4.5      3.9
  Rushing Touchdowns..........        1        4
  Yards Gained Rushing........      162      271
  Yards Lost Rushing..........       24       33
NET YARDS PASSING.............      122      180
  Completions-Attempts-Int....   9-23-0  11-19-1
  Average Per Attempt.........      5.3      9.5
  Average Per Completion......     13.6     16.4
  Passing Touchdowns..........        1        2
TOTAL OFFENSE YARDS...........      260      418
  Total offense plays.........       54       80
  Average Gain Per Play.......      4.8      5.2
Fumbles: Number-Lost..........      4-3      0-0
Penalties: Number-Yards.......     8-73     5-45
PUNTS-YARDS...................    6-276    4-147
Possession Time...............    18:39    41:13
Third-Down Conversions........  3 of 13  8 of 18
Fourth-Down Conversions.......   0 of 2   1 of 1
Red-Zone Scores-Chances.......      1-2      5-5
  Touchdowns..................      1-2      4-5

Michigan: On Offense

So, when you can do the following and limit massive errors elsewhere, you are going to position your team to win the game:

• More than double up your opponent on first downs.  Michigan had the edge 24-11
• Out rush your opponent by 100 yards, while running 30 more run plays (!) than your opponent
• Out gain your opponent 418 to 260
• Win the possession battle in killer fashion – 41 minutes for Michigan, 19 for Nebraska.  Damn
• Convert 8 of 18 third down conversion and dialing up success on one 4th down effort (this was the fake field goal that Drew Dileo made)

Al Borges called a great game – and seems to have a solid grasp on what is working and what is not.  Notice, Devin Gardner didn’t take a single snap before Denard Robinson’s day was over.

Denard Robinson [11-18 - 180 yards - 2 TD's, 23 rush - 83 yards - 2 TD's]
I thought Denard played great, outside of a few errant throws and missed running lanes.  Seeing Denard miss those running lanes was different – usually Denard tends to have decent vision.  Perhaps his vision improves the further he gets upfield – as it seems any vision mishaps happen near the line of scrimmage.

All in all, Denard will grade out well.

Jeremy Gallon [3 rec - 34 yards - 1 TD]
Is Gallon not just a joy to watch at this point?  In the punt return game – Gallon is looking solid as ever making decisive decisions and cuts.  There was the one punt he let go, but I’d rather see that than an oopsie happen back there. 

I’m loving the screen play Borges typically calls when Michigan is nearing scoring territory.  So far, Michigan is running the play well and to success.  Gallon is sure handed and doing what he needs to do after the catch. 

Fitz Toussaint [29 rushes - 138 yards - 2 TD's - 4.8 ypc]
This guy impresses more and more as the season presses on.  Fitz has a knack for turning absolutely zero running room into something positive and really seems to be in a good groove.  The dude is a lot of fun to watch right now and it’s crucial that he gets greater than twenty carries next week against Ohio. 

Worthy of mentioning
Martavious Odoms: he is certainly making an impact on the field of late.  Tae O is solid and is sure-handed – his catch in the back of the end-zone was a thing of beauty.  Great concentration from Odoms on that catch.
Junior Hemingway: Junior is playing very well right now.  He’s more fun to watch with the ball in his hands than he would ever get any credit for.
Roy Roundtree: great catch on the 3rd and 9 play during the first quarter.  The contact was not intentional, good no-call, and Roy managed to pull it in while falling to the ground.  I’m not going to be shocked if he comes up with a big game next week.

Michigan: On Defense

Seriously, did you think it was possible to have this much fun watching Michigan football in 2011?  A team that got annihilated all last season – is now ranked 14th in the nation in total defense (316 yds/game) and 8th in the nation in scoring defense (16.2 pts/game).  It is one of the greatest single-season single unit turnarounds ever in the history of major college football.  I’d like to know when the last time a unit has improved by nearly 100 freaking teams in total defense.  Anybody know?  Do share.

Jordon Kovacs said:

Coach Mattison is establishing an NFL defense here.  We do a pretty good job of disguising and giving the quarterback something to think about. But the offense helps us a lot. Any time you’re not on the field as a defense, they can’t score too many points on you.

I’m on board with that.  Let’s take a look see at what went right on D:

• Allowed 260 yards
• Recovered 3 out of 4 available fumbles
• Held Nebraska to 3 out of 13 third-down conversions
• Stopped Nebraska’s late scoring effort – where Neb missed on their only 4th down conversion attempt

Michigan held Nebraska to well below their season averages on offense.  It was a thing of beauty.  Greg Mattison is being touted as the best hire of 2011 – how could you not agree?

The entire defense.  The group is playing so solid as a unit – I’m wasting my time by calling out individual players.  Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen were great – a continuing trend.  JT Floyd and Blake Countess played spectacular – that is a continuing trend.  Kovacs was witnessed in the Nebraska backfield notching another TFL – also a continuing trend.  Jake Ryan continues to play in all out beast-mode.  I even saw Troy Woolfolk get in on a pass break up!

The entire defense is playing very well right now.

One more week.  Who be excited?  I be.

__
Photo Cred: AnnArbor.com.

Given the relative insanity in regards to the situation in Happy Valley last week, how’d this team come out and play? I saw Nebraska jumped to a 17 point lead, then won by 3…

In a word – resolved. They handled an environment that was so strange it bordered on the macabre. I suspect it is hard to get up for a game that follows a strange quasi-funeral. Credit to the coaching staff for A) focusing the team and B) appropriately addressing the moment before the game. Assistant coach Ron Brown is an FCA legend and absolute stud.

As far as the game itself, Nebraska had total control at 17-0. You are right, PSU stormed back to make it a game. Credit them for showing heart. To be fair to NU both PSU scores were set up by fairly fluky plays. The first came on a ball that could have just been as easily intercepted as caught. (500!) And the second was set up by a trick play (reverse throwback to the QB). So, yeah, NU outplayed PSU. I’m glad they didn’t mess around and lose the game.

To an outsider, this team is hard to figure out. Nebraska got beat badly by Wisconsin, then smoked Michigan State, then proceeded to let Northwestern steal one in Lincoln. How good is this team?

Well, yeah, I’d say you hit it on the nose with that string of games. The word “inconsistent” defines this squad. They have all the markings of a team that plays a lot of sophomores. And, several of their main senior leaders are all junior college guys. Their maturation as a team and becoming more consistent is really the story of the 2011 season.

To your question – this team has the ability to be VERY good. Consider this factoid – for a decade, NU didn’t beat a team ranked in the top 15. This year, they’ve beaten two. The talent quotient is high. When the game plan is good and they are focused, they can play with anyone. But, young teams sometimes fail to execute, and that leads to blowouts (Wisconsin) and games they shouldn’t lose (Northwestern). This is especially true for the Husker defense. Pelini’s schemes were tough for new and younger players to catch on to in the defensive back seven. When that group is playing well, the Blackshirts really click.

Let’s hear the wrap on Taylor Martinez. Given his struggles throwing the ball, is the offensive mindset run first with Burkhead, run second with Martinez, then pass when necessary?

Taylor Martinez is really improving as a quarterback, not just his passing but his overall decision making. My colleague Brandon did an excellent job outlining this as well as comparing him to Denard Robinson. Martinez’s steady improvement as a passer since the Wisconsin game is one of the best stories for the 2011 season so far.

Nebraska is a run-oriented attack. Burkhead is their best offensive player. Yes, they use Martinez extensively in the run game, both with the read option and the down-the-line options. But, by no means do they pass only as a last resort. In several games this year, Nebraska has actually come out of the gate throwing. Teams who load up against the run find Nebraska very willing to throw.

Martinez still has genuinely awful mechanics, but he’s been able to get the ball out. Here’s the thing – Nebraska has legit play makers at receiver and tight end. Kenny Bell and Kyler Reed are fast. They need to get the ball. Martinez’s completion percentage would actually be significantly higher if his receivers didn’t let him down and drop the ball (especially against both Minnesota and Penn State).

What’s Nebraska’s greatest position strength? Greatest weakness?

It’s not really a matter of position strength as it is a matter of depth and experience. It’s kind of a catch 22 for NU right now. NU’s best defensive player is a linebacker, Lavonte David. And, Will Compton has steadily improved. So, its a strength, right? The problem is they are very weak/thin at linebacker after those two. The same could be said for the secondary. Alfonzo Dennard is a stud, and they all feed off of him. At times, they play well. At others, they are very suspect. It’s the same story at running back – a strength because Burkhead is stud, potential weakness because it’s only freshman behind him. When he got nicked up against Northwestern, it hurt the offense a lot.

As far as a a true strength for NU, I can’t overstate how much quality special teams play has helped the Huskers so far this year. Brett Maher’s punting was important last week. He’s done a great job as a kicker this year too. The NU return game has been strong too. That’s the stuff that quietly helps win games.

For Michigan fans that haven’t seen Nebraska play, who are the impact players on both sides of the ball to keep our eyes on?

On defense – just follow #4, David. He’s a joy to watch at linebacker. When he gets help and the defensive line plays well, he’s just a tackle machine always around the ball. Dennard also merits watching. He makes them go in the defensive backfield. On offense, it the Burkhead show. #22 is already a living legend among Husker fans. He is as gutsy as he his talented. The Husker receivers have been hot and cold. If they get rid of the drops, they have athletes that can make plays. Kenny Bell (#80) and Kyler Reed (#25) are players that can knife a defense.

Feel free to throw all objectivity out the window here – how does a Nebraska vs. Michigan game play out in 1997?

Speaking for all Nebraska fans, I can say without a doubt that I would have liked nothing more than to have that title decided on the field. People who hate the BCS need to remember the angst and debate caused by split titles. Nebraska would win, and it might not have even been a very competitive game. Consider that Nebraska demolished #3 ranked Tennessee 42-17 in the Orange Bowl to finish the season while Michigan struggled to beat Washington State 21-16 in the Rose Bowl. That year, Tennessee was quarterbacked by Peyton Manning. Washington State was quarterbacked by Ryan Leaf. Just saying…

It’s easy for Michigan fans to say that their defense would have kept that game competitive. Woodson won the Heisman and all that. But, that 1997 Husker defense was ridiculously loaded. Eight of the eleven defensive starters played in the NFL. The offense was loaded with Frost at quarterback and Ahman Green at I-back. Nebraska was a complete team and would have won the head-to-head match up. Of course, that’s something we would have all liked to have seen.

Finally, how do you see things playing out this Saturday? Predictions are welcome…

I’m not too optimistic for Nebraska, honestly. You’ve already noticed their inconsistency. Can they stay dialed in and perform at a high level for two weeks in a row? Nebraska is also very banged up along both the offensive and defensive lines. That’s not good. Northwestern’s Kain Colter ran all over Nebraska on designed quarterback runs. That’s not good a good sign if they somehow expect to slow down Robinson. Throw in the fact that it is being played at the Big House, and I get downright skeptical. Nebraska will have to play mistake-free football, win big on special teams and get some turnovers from Michigan if they want to have a chance. Let’s say all of that happens…Huskers win 34-31 on a last-minute field goal.

I also just want to say that as Nebraska fans, we are all taking a moment to step back and appreciate what it is to be in the Big Ten conference. Yes, playing this schedule has been a challenge. But, to play against iconic programs like Michigan is a real joy. We’re happy to be in the league, and looking forward to exciting games for many years to come.

If you haven’t seen the predictor model I use for this post – you can go here for a little explanation of the methodology.

Here’s the outcomes so far.  “YPP” in the table is Yards, Points, and Predictions…

ON WITH IT, RIGHT?

NEBRASKA TIME

Nebraska just dealt with the Sandusky mess in their own right – beating Penn State on the road last weekend 17-14.  That was a game that I was excited to witness – due to the fiasco of the entire situation, but I quickly learned that the game itself was dismal, boring, and had no chance at keeping my attention.

Michigan on D

As you can see – the below table speaks to when Michigan is on defense. The Nebraska offense is producing an average of 404.1 yards per game – good for 50th in the nation and 4th in conference.  Going into the game, Michigan’s last three opponents’ offenses have been nationally ranked at 57th, 55th, and now 50th with Nebraska.  On average, Michigan’s defense is holding opponents to 79.67% of their average production (the ‘average production’ metric does not include each opponents game vs. Michigan for a proper comparative analysis).  In the past few weeks, Michigan’s D has improved from 84.7%, to 83.01% prior to the Illinois stomp, and now it’s down just under 80%.  To the table we go:

404.1  * 79.67% = 322 yards predicted (allowed by Mich. D / gained by Nebraska O)

Michigan on O

Below, the offensive table.  Michigan’s offense is averaging 436.33 yards per game, which is good for 33rd nationally (down from 21st prior to the Iowa loss) and 3rd in the conference.  On average, Michigan’s offense is producing 115.05% of their opponents average allowed yards per game.  Nebraska’s defense is giving up 352 yards per game on average, which is good for 38th in the country.  This defensive unit isn’t as solid as it was hyped up to be prior to the season.  Same routine…

352 * 115.05% = 405 yards (Gained by Mich. O / Allowed by Nebraska D)

The Outcome

Michigan’s yard per point measure currently sits at 13.88 yards per point scored this season.

405 yards / 13.88 = 29 points for Michigan

The Huskers’s yard per point measure is an unimpressive 13.34 yards per point scored (12.16 in wins, 18.07 in losses).

322 yards / 13.34 = 24 points for Nebraska

MICHIGAN 29
Nebraska 24

Go Blue.

Trending: the good.

It’s a Michigan Defense!  It’s like celebrating a birth, or re-birth.  From MZone:

How improved is Michigan’s defense this year?  Well…

In order to give up as many points as they did last year, Michigan would have to average 101 points against them in its remaining three games (the two regular season contests and then the bowl game).

Yes, read that again: Michigan would have to give up over 300 HUNDRED POINTS to equal the carnage of 2010.  Even last year’s defense might not be able to do that.

Seriously, damn. Michigan now has the nation’s 5th best scoring defense – allowing 15.5 points per 60 minute outing and has is ranked 16th IN THE NATION in total defense.  Simply amazing.

Ryan Van Bergen is doing work, son.  So is the entire defensive line.  I’m talking about you, too, Mike Martin.  The senior defensive tackle is making his presence felt on the reg.  RVB had three sacks and seven tackles in his latest outing earning him B1G Co-Defensive POW honors.  Said the front was barking at the freshman Illinois had in for a series:

“We were barking at the freshman (quarterback) when he came in because he was looking kind of wide-eyed.”

Mike Martin led the team in tackles and is the main reason Michigan seems to stop every 3rd or 4th down and short conversion.

Martavious Odoms gets to the promise land of orange field turf.  It was a pleasure watching Tae O grab a couple receptions and netting a score on his latter reception.  Odoms is one dude that you feel proud of as a Michigan fan.  Look at all that he has gone through: the 2008 debacle; all that is bad as a result of RR; injured in 2009; injured in 2010; injured and not played much in 2011.  This from Hoke in Monday’s press conference:

Brady Hoke: On Martavious Odums getting more playing time lately. “One thing Tave’s done is he’s come to work every day.” Also said the limitations of a hairline fracture to forearm suffered in fall camp set him back at the beginning of the year.

From Touch the Banner:

Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . Martavious Odoms.  Odoms was struggling to see the field earlier in the year, partly because he was recovering from a broken bone in his forearm.  It was frustrating to see a key player from the past few seasons end his career by barely seeing the field.  Luckily, that trend appears to be ending.  He got what seemed to be the most playing time of the season against the Illini, when he had 2 receptions for 46 yards, including a 27-yard touchdown reception from Devin Gardner to go up 24-7.  Odoms was also wide open in the endzone early in the game, but Denard Robinson overthrew him.

Not surprised Denard over threw Odoms in the end zone when he was wide open, as Denard was rolling out and running toward the line of scrimmage by the time he released the ball.

JT Floyd was in…beast mode?  I went back and watch some of JT’s afternoon and he was right there all day long and if you paid attention to JT throughout the course of the game – his interception wouldn’t have been a surprise.  This is from yours truly in the Game Recap:

JT gets verbally abused by most Michigan fans – as his tackling has been poor and he is most known for giving receivers ginormous 10-15 yard cushions prior to the snap.  Floyd played a hell of a game.  JT showed two things yesterday, (1) that he, at this point in the season and his career, can run and not get beat deep and (2) that he has the speed and quickness to break on the ball and make a big play.  His interception was crucial as Illinois had an opportunity around mid field to pull within either three or seven points of Michigan.

TEAM, TEAM, TEAM.  Football games are won and lost by a TEAM, not a single unit on the football field.  Hence, Michigan’s monstrous struggles for three years with one to one-and-a-half out of three units of the team playing with any level of competency.  So here we be, ten games under the new direction of Brady Hoke and Michigan won a road game because they are much more of a complete TEAM.  When the offense eats a bad peanut, the defense is there to turn things around.

Trending: the not-so-good.

Denard’s inability to find open space with his legarooskies.  This is unfortunate for college football fans, specifically those with feelings involving emotions towards Michigan, as Denard is a joy to watch when he is healthy and running in space.

Devin Gardner’s knack for running horizontal, not vertical.  It’s frustrating watching Devin carry the football.  Does he not just want to bounce everything outside?  I’m sure that worked in high school and he was able to turn the corner with success – well this ain’t high school anymore and he’s not going to have any success doing that.  I have two beefs with Gardner when he’s running (1) is that his first instinct is to bounce it outside and (2) when it’s time for contact, he typically turns his shoulder and does this little side jump thing in to the defender.  If you’ve watched Michigan all year – you know what I am talking about.  However, Devin did his part in managing the game and putting 14 points on the board (really 7, the other TD was all Toussaint).  My beef on display (that reads funny, please keep that in context):

Devin should have cut this up field when he was at about the eight or nine yard line.  Since it was 3rd and goal – Michigan was forced to line up for three instead of potentially six if Gardner is the aggressor.  In the 4th, there was a play (video link) where Devin shows some nice ability to quickly react and get out of the pocket / up field.  So, that was nice to see.

With Michigan’s defense and special teams playing key roles in the victory – the shocker isn’t that the two negative points in the trends are in regards to Michigan’s two quarterbacks.  You have to complain about somethings, it’s mandatory you know.

Around the B1G

Ohio State mystified by Purdue, loses 26-23 in OT.  Seriously, Danny Hope is 3-0 against the Buckeyes?!  Damn.  So, Ohio State put together three conference wins in a row – two of which came at the hands of Illinois (who has now Ron Zooked it’s way into an average at best season) and Wisconsin.  Ohio State a la one week prior vs. Indiana spots their next Indiana foe a 10 spot.  Towards the end of the game, Ohio State was on the fortunate end of an improbable touchdown late in the 4th quarter.  Oh but wait, the extra point was blocked.  From Eleven Warriors:

Six and four. That’s where the Buckeyes stand after inexcusably starting the game in a daze for the second straight week allowing the opponent to jump out to a 10-0 lead, putting extra pressure on an offense  that struggles to get first downs let alone score points.

Of course, that problem was magnified by a defense that despite holding Purdue to three points in the 2nd half, simply couldn’t make the big plays when needed especially on third down in what is becoming an all too familiar trend.

It wasn’t pretty for the Buckeyes.

Nebraska slides by Penn State 17-14, but who watched?  Seriously, Penn State games are brutal to watch this season – and Nebraska isn’t too far behind.  The two teams combined for fifteen freaking punts in a battle of punts.  Nebraska did jump out to the 17-0 lead, so Penn State made it somewhat exciting towards the end.  No doubt, it was a different game given all of the scandal related issues Penn State experienced last week.  From Corn Nation:

I thought Nebraska came out and played fairly well in a difficult situation.  Not perfect, mind you. A blown coverage in the secondary led to Penn State’s first touchdown and a seemingly blown officiating call led to the second. It’s hard to say what the game would have been like if the horrific allegations hadn’t blown up in the past week.  But it’s a win against another top 20 foe on the road; note that Husker critics don’t bring that stat up anymore.

Should be a fun watch this Saturday in the Big House.

Michigan State avenges last season’s throttling in Iowa City 37-21.  Iowa kinda sorta handed this one to the Spartans via giving them the ball via turnovers.  Not that I’m taking away credit from Michigan State, but Michigan State didn’t have to do a whole lot to earn those points off turnovers.  From BHGP:

It’s hard to take a whole lot away from a game where Iowa craps the bed on a grander scale than at any other point in the season. Sure, it was going to be a tall task to beat Michigan State, and I don’t want to give the impression that the Spartans didn’t earn the victory; clearly, they did.  It’s just… what’s there to take from a game where Iowa’s -3 in turnovers and all three had a major effect on the scoreboard? That the Hawkeyes shouldn’t turn the ball over three times? Of course they shouldn’t. That the Hawkeye defense needs to do a better job at keeping the opposing team out of the end zone with a short field? Clearly, yes, but good luck making demands like that, you know? The point is, the turnover margin was both Michigan State’s best and Iowa’s worst of the year, and every now and then, those games are going to happen.

Damn you, Michigan State.  I’ll be rooting against you, forever.

I think Northwestern played, I think.  Yes, Northwestern in fact played Rice.  In a game that is essentially meaningless in the B1G – and sans a strength of schedule argument this game was meaningless to Michigan’s outlook.  So, Northwestern won 28-6.

Wisconsin does what it’s supposed to do against Minnesota, winning 42-13.  Obviously, this was expected.  Wisconsin is getting back on track, but the sting of those two heartbreaking losses has to sit with this team and fan base.

Michigan 31  Illinois 14

In life, change is constant and inevitable.  For the Michigan football program, change has been constant for the past four seasons.  Much of this change hasn’t been pretty and certainly hasn’t been a good time.

I can tell you one thing, Michigan fans – the Michigan football program is changing for the better.  And it might just turn out to be a darn good time.

This is a team and program on the rise.  In amazing fashion, it’s Michigan’s defense that qualifies this team’s top 25 status – not it’s offense.  In recent years, the team goals changed from a Big Ten championship to simply winning enough games to become bowl eligible.  Any win beyond six was a bonus.  Now?  Pshhh, now in November the goal remains as it was before the season started – to win the Big Ten championship game and be conference champs for the first time in a long time.  While Michigan doesn’t control it’s own destiny, it’s November 14th and Michigan can still win the B1G with help, bowl eligibility is a given and this team is now shooting for a ten win season.

How about that defensive performance?  That was a Michigan defense!  Some people are dubbing it the “Mattison Miracle”.   The chart below is from that same mgoblog thread:

Never in a million.  Never would I have thought this defense had the talent or wherewithal to improve to a “Michigan defense”, a phrase that is so commonly used nowadays by a coaching staff that knows it’s meaning.

Let’s see what this box score is talking about:

                                    MICH      ILL
FIRST DOWNS...................       14       15
  Rushing.....................        8        6
  Passing.....................        6        8
  Penalty.....................        0        1
NET YARDS RUSHING.............      223       37
  Rushing Attempts............       48       33
  Average Per Rush............      4.6      1.1
  Rushing Touchdowns..........        3        2
  Yards Gained Rushing........      273      105
  Yards Lost Rushing..........       50       68
NET YARDS PASSING.............      139      177
  Completions-Attempts-Int....   8-15-1  17-34-1
  Average Per Attempt.........      9.3      5.2
  Average Per Completion......     17.4     10.4
  Passing Touchdowns..........        1        0
TOTAL OFFENSE YARDS...........      362      214
  Total offense plays.........       63       67
  Average Gain Per Play.......      5.7      3.2
Fumbles: Number-Lost..........      3-2      3-2
Penalties: Number-Yards.......     4-29     4-25
PUNTS-YARDS...................    4-137    9-374
  Average Yards Per Punt......     34.2     41.6
  Net Yards Per Punt..........     32.2     34.7

The Takeaway?

How about holding Illinois to 37 total yards rushing and 1.1 average yards per rush attempt?  That’s a Michigan Defense.  Michigan outgained Illinois 362 to 214.  That’s significant.  Illinois simply could not move the ball on this defense, specifically the front four.  Ryan Van Bergen was tremendous and rightfully earned himself a Big Ten co-Defensive player of the week award.

JT Floyd.  JT gets verbally abused by most Michigan fans – as his tackling has been poor and he is most known for giving receivers ginormous 10-15 yard cushions prior to the snap.  Floyd played a hell of a game.  JT showed two things yesterday, (1) that he, at this point in the season and his career, can run and not get beat deep and (2) that he has the speed and quickness to break on the ball and make a big play.  His interception was crucial as Illinois had an opportunity around mid field to pull within either three or seven points of Michigan.

Denard or Devin?  This is all I’ll say:  Denard gives Michigan the best chance to win.  No, he’s not perfect.  Yes, he is still smiling.  Please, give the kid a mf’in break as he is in his first year of a new offensive system and is still developing as a quarterback.  As for Devin, he’ll be a solid quarterback and is currently a solid #2 QB.

I have a request: can we organize the next two football games so every opponent offense play is a 3rd and 1?  I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but this defense is incredibly successful on defending these short yardage plays.  This has been a trend for the entire season.  Michigan’s ability to get a stop on 3rd or 4th and short afforded Michigan the opportunity to beat Notre Dame and remain in the game in both the Michigan State and Iowa losses.  I won’t be surprised to see a video mash pulled together of 3rd or 4th and short stops alone.

Jeremy Gallon.  Did a fine job seeing the open lanes on the punt returns and attacking them full speed.  It’s tough to judge Gallon’s speed.  Some plays he looks kind of slow (see his screen reception early in the Purdue game) and some he looks quite fast.  He seemed to show some nice speed on both of his returns.

On to Nebraska.

___
Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images.

Choppin’ It Up is a Q & A feature with a fellow blogger repping Michigan’s upcoming opponent. This week, Robert of Illinois blog A Lion Eye came over to MGoFootball to chop it up.  Big thanks to Robert for filling us Michigan fans in on what we don’t know about this week’s opponent.

Illinois, similar to Michigan, had the nice 6-0 start to the season, but has since faltered in losing 3 straight.  What’s the mindset of this Illinois team coming off of the bye week?

I think Derek Dimke’s game-tying field goal clanking off the upright at Penn State is still ringing in their heads.  We led that game late, only to watch Penn State drive the length of the field for the first time all day to take the lead, only to watch us get the ball back and somehow get into field goal position, only to watch our game-tying field goal attempt hit the upright.  So our losing streak had an exclamation point.

Can they recover from that?  I’m not so sure.  This is still a team with only 6 seniors.  Young-ish teams, especially young-ish Illinois teams, have a history of collapsing.

But the good news is that they’ve had two weeks to recover.  Back home, against someone we always want to beat, with a full two weeks to recover – we’ll probably know how the rest of our season will go after the first quarter on Saturday.

You’re not going to tell the Michigan coaches, right?  Promise?  Thanks.

The best way to beat this defense, in my opinion, is to wear them down by winning the time of possession battle.  Although the Illinois coaches set out at Camp Rantoul in August to find a 22 man defense (they wanted to rotate two players at every single position), they really only found 17.  Both of our safeties will likely play every snap, we only really have one linebacker who rotates in, and the backup defensive tackles don’t play very much at all.

As such, we struggled at Penn State in the 4th quarter.  No college football player can play nearly every snap and not get exhausted.  So if Michigan can control the clock and grind out long drives, we’re probably in trouble.  The bye week will be helpful to refresh those legs, but this team is still showing wear and tear.  We saw last year in Ann Arbor what happens when our defense begins to wear down (conversely, in our bowl game, when we held Baylor to 14 points, we saw what our defense could do when refreshed).

Absolutely.  The last three games should have been victories of 28-17, 31-21, and 24-10.  Instead, we lost 17-7, 21-14, and 10-7.  The defense has done everything they could do – I’m not kidding, they’ve been warrior poets – but the offense hasn’t held up their end of the bargain.  The biggest problem: fumbles.  We’ve fumbled 15 times, losing 8.  Every single one of them felt like a momentum killer.

But that’s not the only problem.  AJ Jenkins still leads the Big Ten in receiving yards, but the last three defenses have adjusted to take away the big play.  Nathan Scheelhaase has dropped from 5th nationally to 25th in passing efficiency in the last 3 weeks.  And our mind-boggling struggles on the offensive line have led to a stagnant running game.

As a fan, I think they can fix it and quick.  But as a realist, I look at the fact that we haven’t scored before halftime in our last three games and realize that a 6-0 start might combine with an 0-6 finish.

Strength is easy – tackling the guy from the other team before he crosses the line of scrimmage with the ball.  We’re 6th nationally in sacks and 3rd in tackles for loss.  Defensive ends Whitney Mercilus and Michael Buchanan and linebacker Jonathan Brown are currently 1st, 2nd, and 5th in the Big Ten in sacks.  And Mercilus is 1st in TFL’s as well, with Brown 4th.  The key to this defense is turning 2nd & 5 into 3rd & 9, and they do it quite well.  So I’d say the ends and linebackers are the biggest position strength.

Glaring weaknesses?  Consider this a hornet’s nest you’ve stepped on.

We have, without a doubt, unequivocally, the worst special teams units in the nation.  Our 118th (out of 120) ranked punt return actually qualifies for best return unit on the team, as our kickoff return ranks 119th nationally.  Not to be outdone, we’re 105th in net punting and a blistering 95th in kickoff return defense.  As a Michigan fan, you can feel confident in one thing: even if this game has no turnovers, your starting field position will likely be 10-13 yards better than ours.  You will return kickoffs to the 32 – we’ll bring it out to the 17.  You’ll force us to punt and set yourselves up at the 41 – we’ll be pinned at the 22.  Our offense will need to come up with 5 more first downs, and our defense will have to increase their third down conversion percentage that much more, just to even the playing field. I’d argue that it’s the weakest weakness of any Big Ten team in the last decade.

But I’m not bitter or anything.

I’ll keep this answer short.  Marginally pleased that he’s raised our recruiting level to it’s highest in 20 years, but complete lack of confidence that he’ll make the correct decision in a close game.  He’s 34-48 at Illinois, and is now the second-longest tenured Big Ten coach.  That says… a lot.

I’ll give you one on offense and two on defense. On offense, it’s wide receiver AJ Jenkins.  Despite a few sub-par games lately, he still leads the conference in receiving yards.  He’s fast, he runs great routes, and he can burst for some YAC after he has the ball in his hands.  If we can get him open in space, he can be a game changer.

On defense, watch for Whitney Mercilus at defensive end and Jonathan Brown at linebacker.  Mercilus came out of nowhere this year (his redshirt junior season) to lead the nation in sacks.  He’s likely on his way to becoming the first 1st-team All American at Illinois since offensive guard Martin O’Donnell in 2007.  Brown is only a true sophomore, but I think the linebacker from Memphis is headed for Butkus finalist in 2013.  If he finishes strong this year, I think he has a shot at 1st team all Big Ten.  He’s averaging 14 tackles per game over his last 3 games, is 5th in the conference in sacks and 4th in TFL’s.  He might very well finish his career as our best linebacker since the mid-90′s.

I have this thing where I won’t predict the game until the Friday night before – I want to get a sense of everything during the week before making a prediction.  But right now, I’m probably leaning towards an Illini victory.  Two main reasons:

1) The 3OT loss in the Big House last year.  I had a chance to talk with offensive lineman Jeff Allen back in the spring, and he told me that this game is the one that the team has circled on the calendar.  They want revenge.

2) The gut-punch loss at Penn State, followed by a bye week.  We went from “we kind of control our destiny for the Big Ten Championship Game” to “I hope some bowl will take us if we lose our last 6″.  The bye week might have helped us regroup and refocus.  I could see us coming out of the gate on fire and taking a 14-0 first quarter lead.

I could also see us giving up 3 punt return touchdowns and losing by 24.