[ADDITION - Awesome video feature on David Molk - must watch.]
Injury report and game details are on your right. So this is a big one. Michigan’s first road test of the season comes against a Notre Dame team that is prevalent on the media’s radar because of Brian Kelly’s debut season. Rich Rodriguez took a lot of pressure off of him and his team by winning comfortably a week ago – God I couldn’t imagine how much pressure he would be under if he hadn’t beat UConn. What a media annoyance that would have been for a Michigan fan. Vegas isn’t real sure what to do with this game, giving Notre Dame a similar edge (-3.5) they thought Michigan had last week against UConn.

Match-up Advantages

Michigan Pass vs. Notre Dame’s Secondary…
Last week Purdue threw the ball quite a bit against the Notre Dame secondary – completing 31 of 42 passes with a couple interceptions in the mix. I think Michigan has the slight advantage simply because the run game will nicely set up the passing game. If Denard can be accurate with this throws, he ought to be tossing to some open receivers as he was last week against UConn. There’s been a lot of conversation around how well RR’s spread offense sets up the pass – lots of references to the completely wide open receivers Pat White used to throw to (by the way, that’s my last mention of Pat White, I’m already tired of all the Denard comparisons). Slight Advantage (>): Michigan.

Michigan Run vs. Notre Dame’s Run Defense…
Denard needs to replicate his effectiveness this week in the run game, not necessarily his production. 29 carries is too many for Denard to sustain week after week – and it’s well documented that 20+ carries for the quarterback is not RR’s intention. My guess is that Denard gets near 20 carries if not more – he’s just too fast and too much of a threat to not get him carries – especially if it’s effective and getting Michigan points on the board. Notre Dame’s run defense should be stronger than that of UConn’s, but still one that I believe Michigan can exploit. Expect Mike Shaw and Vincent Smith to rotate in similar fashion to that of last week. I don’t expect to see Stephen Hopkins or Mike Cox make their first appearances until Michigan plays UMass at home next week. Based on one week and one week alone – you have to give Michigan a hefty advantage based on one Denard Robinson. Definite Advantage (>>>>): Michigan.

Michigan Pass Defense vs. Notre Dame’s Passing Game…
Dayne Crist played relatively well last week, but you could tell he is a guy that just hasn’t played too many snaps at this level.

Dayne Crist said “There were a couple plays where I thought I could have taken a little bit more of a chance,” Crist said. “But those come and go. Both plays that I’m thinking of we completed the ball, so it’s kind of a Catch 22 on that one.

“But those things will come. Again, I’m not worried about it. I’m not going to play scared or anything like that. I’ll do whatever is asked of me, and that’s how I’ve been since I’ve been here, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.”

Reports on his play vary from extremely well to mediocre. Crist showed some poise and got the ball to his big play guy Michael Floyd – who could present big problems for an untested Michigan secondary. Michigan will most likely stick J.T. Floyd on Michael Floyd. The nature of last week’s UConn game allowed Michigan to hide their weaknesses in the secondary. If Michigan’s front seven can exploit ND’s young offensive line and get to Crist – Michigan’s secondary will have a much better chance to bend and not break. Advantage (>>): Notre Dame.

Michigan Run Defense vs. Notre Dame’s Running Game…
Armando Allen and the young freshman Cierre Wood looked very good in space against Purdue. I think this could pose some big problems or at least yield some big plays against Michigan’s front seven. The two guys combined for 151 yards against Purdue and looked pretty good doing it. This should be a huge test for Michigan’s linebackers Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton, who collectively didn’t have their strongest games against Jordon Todman and UConn last week. In my opinion, Michigan’s ability to stop Notre Dame’s running attack is a key to who wins this ball game. Advantage (>): Notre Dame.

Weather Forecast

So it appears as though it could be a wet one with some rain from the hurricane aftermath. If it plays a part in causing turnovers, as it did in the 2008 game, it’s absolutely a factor and I’m not sure who that favors. The default choice would be the home team – and again you can take what happened a couple years ago into consideration. Does it help or hurt Denard’s ability to run? Again, not sure because it could go either way, but my hunch is that it hurts the ND defenders more than it hurts Denard. Using his running style against UConn as a basis, his style of running is more vertical than it is horizontal, therefore, advantage Denard and Michigan…here’s your forecast as of 10am ET Friday morning.

What Riles and Nettles Thy Minds

Cautious optimism riddles the minds of Michigan fans because of last year’s post-4-0 collapse. I hate South Bend and the freakish turnovers that always seem to fall in the favor of Notre Dame – and with rain in the forecast – I think more of the turnover potential and impact it could have on the game. Notre Dame’s tight end Rudolph and wideout Floyd scare me, because they are scary good and both will be playing on Sundays in the near future. The mix of Michigan’s suspect D and Notre Dame’s talent in the backfield make me feel uneasy. If those guys get in space more than a few times – it could turn in to a long day for Michigan. If it comes down to the kicking game, I’m not all that confident in what Michigan puts out on the field.

On the other hand, Michigan might have a talent on their hands that is unlike anything else in college football. If Denard can duplicate what he did against UConn – lookout for one hell of an exciting day. Michigan seemed to show a collective team speed that wasn’t there a year ago. Michigan has weapons on offense that far exceed that of Purdue, who didn’t look all that bad against ND’s defense.

Notre Domers are confident because…

• Well, they have a new coach and they think he’s the man for the job and he’ll navigate his team to victory
• Michael Floyd
• RR has one road win in his first two years at Michigan

Notre Domers are worried because…

• It appears as though they may have some issues in defending the perimeter, which might incline ND to play a lot of nickel to get more speed on the field.
• The defensive front didn’t get a huge push, at least consistently, against the Purdue offensive line. Michigan’s line is bigger and more experienced than that of Purdue’s.
• Denard Robinson’s legs
• Denard Robinson’s arms

Michigan fans are confident because…

• Denard “Shoelace” Robinson wears #16 for the guys wearing those winged helmets.
• Michigan, as a team, showed signs of improved ball security against UConn and wound up with a +1 in the turnover department.
• Michigan’s team speed seems to be much improved

Michigan fans are worried because…

• 3-8 happened in 2008
• 5-7 happened in 2009
• The Michigan secondary is freakishly young and inexperienced

If Michigan Wins – this is how it’s goin’ down…

Rain or shine – I think Denard Robinson is going to see a similar degree of success against Notre Dame as he did against UConn. Michigan may not sustain drives like they did against UConn, but offensively they should have a productive day. Michigan’s drives won’t stall nearly as often if Denard can continue to convert short and long 3rd downs – yielding more touchdowns than field goals. I think Notre Dame is going to have some success running the ball and using some play-action, but think they will stall inside the red zone and convert field goals. Michigan should have enough of an advantage on both the offensive and defensive fronts to control the line of scrimmage, which will minimize the effectiveness of Crist and his ability to get the ball downfield to Michael Floyd and Rudolph. Turnovers will play a role in this game, but I think both teams will give the ball up once or twice – more or less a washout. Michigan has too many playmakers and too much team speed for Notre Dame to handle. It’s close, but Michigan rides back to Ann Arbor with W #2.

Saturday was an all around great day. Based on the degree of sunburn on my forehead, you’d never believe it was downright chilly at times Saturday leading up to the game. It felt like a mid-October day in Ann Arbor. Before the game my cornhole skills were put to the test as the wind was swirling in all directions. There were fireworks all day – beginning with rededicating the Big House, The Mealer Story, and an overall team performance that led to a huge opening day win. I felt like the crowd was on par with how loud last year’s Notre Dame game – and it was electric when Brock Mealer walked out of the tunnel with his mother and brother Elliot. A heartfelt moment to say the least, an incredibly sad story that finally sees some positivity.

To the game…

On Offense…

You are almost guaranteed to win a college football game when your offense does the following…

• 28 first downs
• 1 penalty
• 0 turnovers
• Nearly 37 minutes of possession
• 14-19 on 3rd down conversions
• 4-4 in the red zone, 3 touchdowns
• Drives of 14, 19, 11, and 15 plays

Do these things and you are winning that ball game every single time. The ability of Denard Robinson to throw the ball completely handcuffed UConn’s defensive unit, see every third down and 7+ that Denard converted on.

Thoughts on the QB Depth Chart
I don’t doubt that Denard can continue to play extremely well. I also still believe that, based on the comments from Tate Forcier’s father, that Rodriguez wasn’t done disciplining Tate. There’s no way Devin Gardner has passed up Tate on the depth chart. Michigan is going to be in games where Denard’s legs for one reason or another, can’t convert over 50% of third downs. Coach Rod knows that Denard’s 29 carries is probably too many – and the scare when Denard went down at the end of the 3rd quarter is what happens when you have a guy like Denard. Denard’s fearlessness is fantastic, but it may get him injured at some point. Bottom line, it’s my presumption that Tate’s influencers around him are echoing these same things and letting him know that he is going to be critical to this team’s success at some point this season.

Denard Robinson…
Because the Denard media binge and love-fest is already outta control – briefly…Denard has learned to read the defense and do what the coaches are teaching. In turn, defense exhibit A could not contain him and he effortlessly converted 2nd and long, 3rd and long and got 7+ yards time after time on first down. I’d be willing to bet that Denard is the only QB in the country accelerating through defenders as he does in the clip below. Now that he’s proven he can throw effectively, tiny running lanes are all Denard needs to convert.

Mike Shaw…
I thought Mike Shaw had a great game carrying the ball, despite any lacking in the box score. He seems stronger this year and he ran with authority on Saturday. More than once, he easily could have been tackled behind the line of scrimmage, but busted a move and managed to churn out something positive…like the below… On the touchdown, Mike showed that he can run with authority and hit the hole going full speed while keeping his balance. He showed that he’s going to be an asset out as a receiver out of the backfield as well. Was impressed with this guy on Saturday.

Vincent Smith…
I dig what Vincent Smith brings to the table. He’s a grinder and much more often than not he is pushing the defender back for an extra yard or three. He’s short, but powerful, and it can’t be easy for opposing defenders to find him as he is patiently picking his way through the zone blocking in front of him. On his first touchdown, Vincent got lost in the shuffle, was patient and broke a tackle to get in to the end zone.

The Offensive Line…
Ton of credit to these guys. They opened up holes for Shaw, Smith and Denard all day long. Definitely a scare when Molk went down, but he looked more tired than anything. He came back in almost immediately, much like Denard after he went down with an apparent injury in the 3rd quarter. If these guys can stay healthy, Michigan’s offense should continue to have lots of success on the ground and through the air all season long.

Receivers / Slots…
Give these guys a lot of credit as well. While most of the yards came on the ground, they converted when given the opportunity. Not all games will play out like this one – the passing game will be more prevalent as the season gets under way. Finally, Terrance Robinson got into the action on a beautiful bubble screen fake from Denard that forced the safety out of position – opening up the entire middle of the field. I thought Grady did okay with his opportunities, but I think he needs to show more if he wants to keep getting as many touches. Odoms and Stonum were both solid and these two guys look to be the most consistent, well-rounded of the bunch.

On Defense…

Defense came out and played well – holding UConn to 10 points was not expected by anyone. The consensus was a thirty something to thirty something ball game. Some stats worthy of noting…

• UConn completion rate held to 47%
• Forced 1 turnover
• UConn 4 – 15 on 3rd down conversions
• 1 blocked kick
• 10 POINTS

Obviously, only allowing 10 points is key. Forcing a turnover in the red zone and blocking a field goal – both extremely critical in Michigan’s general comfort level that grew as the game pushed on in the 3rd and 4th quarters. All in all, based on what happened last season, I don’t envision this defense getting full of themselves at any point this season. The degree of last season’s defensive collapse was so severe that there’s no way it escapes the minds of the coaches or returning players.

J.T. Floyd & James Rogers
Both these guys had solid games – and I was pleasantly surprised by the play of James Rogers. He was extremely active and seems to be a ball hawk. Makes me wonder where he’s been his whole career. J.T. was solid as well, especially in run D support and he may have had the biggest play of the entire day…below my friends…

Linebackers…
Obi Ezeh and James Mouton both lead the team in tackles with 9 and 8 respectively. Mouton laid the wood on some UConn guys on a few plays. Craig Roh lead the team with 2 tackles for loss. Based on the eye test, I would have to say that both Roh and Mouton outplayed Ezeh. I noticed Obi was out of position or seemed to over-pursue on a few plays. Overall speed was good and they were out to hit someone. Moundros looked good out there and definitely looks the part.

On Special Teams…

Michigan only punted one time for 51 yards – not bad for young Will Hagerup. The kicking game had some issues – it was to be expected in light of the youth and also the swirling winds. Gibbons missed from 43 yards out and made from 24. Gibbons also missed an extra point – and it sounds like Drew Dileo had some issues getting the ball down as the holder. A must fix before heading to South Bend this week. Kick coverages weren’t bad.

Some extra… Andy Staples CNNSI, Forcier – don’t be foolish stay at Michigan, Denard love @ Dr. Saturday, UConn happy it’s over.

Today’s press conference…

Will update as more comes through…

Rich Rodriguez…

• On injuries. Roy Roundtree is doubtful with internal bruises. Carvin Johnson very doubtful with sprained MCL
• Roundtree internal bruising/bleeding doubtful for ND. Carvin Johnson sprained knee “very” doubtful
• junior hemingway still unclear
• On compliments: “It’s like poison. It’s good, as long as you don’t swallow it.”
• On NotreDame defense: “I think they’d be pretty satisfied with the way their defense played last week.”
• Rodriguez doesn’t seem concerned about Denard hype after the game. Says Denard is a humble guy, will remind him to stay hungry.
• Thomas Gordon and Floyd SImmons will replace Carvin Johnson if he’s out
• On secondary, now missing Woolfolk and C. Johnson: “We’re kind of hanging on in the secondary a little bit.”
• Doesn’t know Kelly well but “I’m sure we’ve watched each other on film over the years.”
• Rodriguez, smiling: Think you’d be surprised if Denard doesn’t start? … He’s earned the start.
• “I’m concerned with all our players, every one of our players all the time. What you do on the field and off the field.”
• “I don’t blame guys for being disappointed if they don’t play.”
• On Tate: says he understands players being dissapointed not playing. Clearly not suggesting Tate going anywhere
• On if he talked with Tate since Saturday: “Why? Is there a reason to?”
• Said kicking competition will be ongoing.
• “We have three really good quarterbacks, I think, who are just going to get better.”
• Jared Van Slyke is out for the year.
• Rodriguez just joked it always seems to rain when he goes to Notre Dame
• “It’s a team game. It’s all about the team.”

Kevin Koger…

• Denard made correct reads
• “Good to go out and show people what we are capable of”
• Mentions the noise and tall grass at Notre Dame from his freshman year.
• The passes in the first quarter from Denard forced the defense to be honest and respect the pass.
• Denard is a lot stronger than last year, took a lot of hits Saturday
• On downfield blocking: “all comes down to effort, we gotta give more effort on the outside to spring big plays…”
• With so many big play guys, sustaining blocks downfield is key
• Can definitely notice the difference regarding a louder Big House.

Mike Shaw…

• Always hard on himself after games and looking to improve…
• Coaches look for stability and consistency from the backs, no fumbles
• Roy Roundtree was “thrilled” watching the hit that knocked him out. He likes that type of playing.
• “I am a student athlete”…”had to put my nose in the dirt and make sure I took care of school before anything else…”
• “UConn wasn’t ready for a guy back there with 4.3 speed”
• On Denard: “sept 4 was denards show I had no problem being supporting cast”
• On Notre Dame: “freshman year…rowdy crowd”
• Oline making big strides and are only getting better.

Obi Ezeh…

• Fumble recovery reminded him last year’s at MSU…said he got smacked in the face right after the recovery
• “Jonas played awesome…wreaking a lot habit.”
• Last year: “use that as motivation for this year…I just want to win.”
• It all starts with the Dline – Mike Martin double teamed for almost the whole game
• Were ready for the uptempo offense that UConn was running at times
• On Notre Dame: “Big game on a big stage…want to make a statement”

Ryan Van Bergen…

• Played well but can continue to get better…
• No sacks on Saturday, but were facing a 5 or 6 blockers
• On secondary: “With experience, will really improve their play…”
• “Denard is accurate as a passer and defenses will struggle with his ability to run and pass throughout the season…”
• Has gained 20-25 lbs and all D linemen are in even better shape than last year. Appreciate and credit the strength staff
• Obi is extremely resilient and his leadership has always been there
• Having a lot of fun at D end…game slows down a bit when you are 2 feet from a guy as opposed to 2 inches

More to come tomorrow when I return from AA back to Cincinnati – enjoy some highlights for now.

The title says it all. If you didn’t know, MGoBlue.com for the last couple weeks or so had several plays for fans to rank in the top ten in Michigan Stadium history. Straight awesome.

Can’t wait to hear this guy live tomorrow!

Before Saturday, will be posting a 2010 Season Prediction and general outlook for the Michigan football program as it transitions from year three to year four since hiring Rich Rodriguez. I’ve already discussed how a nightmare of a season might unfold for Michigan and what a dream season could possibly entail – but usually reality trumps all – so on to reality my friends.

In the tables below…St = Starts and App = Game Appearances.

QB

The Sitch: This is the magical unit in the Rodriguez spread style offense, but if you ask me, that’s an overused statement because it holds true in every offense. As the opener approaches, it’s becoming apparent that the coaching staff is feeling comfortable with the play of Denard, Tate and Devin. RR saying all three may play and that Devin will not be redshirting as he is mature enough both physically and mentally.

When I analyze these three guys, especially Tate and Denard, I have a hard time making judgments on what happens during spring and fall practice as opposed to what I’ve seen in games. The spring game is just too different from a game for me to fully put stock in the hype around Denard. No question, he needs to be on the field in some capacity. If you didn’t know, he’s kinda fast. If Denard is the starter and if he indeed does take the majority of the snaps, it’s because of the followings: he has a better grasp of the playbook, his accuracy / confidence throwing the ball is much better / higher, and his decision making is waaay improved as a product of knowing the playbook and having more confidence.

I live near Cincinnati, so I answer to a bunch of wannabe truck driver buckeye fans regarding why Denard is starting over Tate, Tate is transferring because it’s what they do in that family, etc. It doesn’t really matter, at all, who takes the first snap and first couple series against UConn. I agree with Angelique Chengelis that the Michigan fan base and college football world has made way too much of who gets the start.

What to Expect: Denard Robinson will be taking the first snaps against UConn – put that one in the bank. My best guess, after seeing all the interviews, press conferences, spring game, beanie bowl highlights, etc. is that Denard will get a 2-5 series leash before you will see Tate get in the ball game. From that point it’s a feel thing for Rich Rod – so whichever guy looks most promising up against UConn’s defense is the guy that is going to stay in the game. Expect to see Devin in the ball game if Michigan creates some separation on the scoreboard, but don’t put any coin on him seeing the field if this game is remotely close. RR will have to side with the guys that have more experience even if Devin is playing up to Tate and Denard’s level.

Running Back

The Sitch: Without a sure starter coming back, there’s a bit of speculation as to who is going to stand out and get the bulk of the carries when it counts. Both guys with some game experience will most likely get the first cracks at it, Mike Shaw and Vincent Smith. Smith is going to be used more between the tackles and Shaw on the outside. Smith has the shiftiness and some of that knack that Mike Hart had to always get a few more yards than you think he will. Shaw has really not lived up to his potential yet. He’s a guy with great speed, but lacks consistency and doesn’t have much power whatsoever.

The guy that a lot of people are ready to see is Mike Cox. Mike is a guy that has had good moments in clean up duty and is regarded as the best overall athlete of the group. Should Mike prove to be a gamer, he could add some real depth to this group and barring injuries, give RR a solid three to four guys to feel comfortable with in the backfield.

What to Expect: Vincent Smith is your starter against UConn, but Mike Shaw, Mike Cox and Stephen Hopkins are all very likely to see some carries. I look for Vincent Smith to emerge as the most consistent back on read option runs because of his ability to squirt through the big guys up front. Smith had no problem snagging 4 to 7 yards on first down for most of his touches against Ohio State last year – so more of the same is to be expected this season. Getting a 1,000 yard rusher out of this group would be great, but I don’t see it happening.

Wide Receiver

The Sitch: This is no doubt a talented group with a ton of game experience. One surprise that came out of camp was RR sticking Martavious Odoms on the outside. A move warranted by Odoms’ knowledge of the system and his physical nature. Stonum has had an outstanding fall camp and is primed for a breakout season (with a new vision thanks to some contacts).

Hemingway is a guy that has looked great at times, but can’t seem to stay healthy. It’s hard to expect a lot of him simply because he hasn’t really proven himself after two seasons being a starter going into the opener. I think he has the potential to be a solid contributor.

What to Expect: Stonum is going to have a big season on the outside as Michigan’s only real deep threat, not to mention his proven ability to return kickoffs. If Odoms can stay healthy, he’ll be a mainstay on the edge as his ability to block is critical for several plays going to the slot. If any of the young guys need to step up, expect Je’Ron Stokes and true freshman Jeremy Jackson to get their shot.

Slot Receiver

The Sitch: Roy Roundtree was straight up a receiving beast over the last four games in ’09. Roundtree is fully expected to top the group when it comes to both leadership and production. He’s a dude that is quickly becoming a favorite among both the local media and fans. Kelvin Grady looks positioned to also see more time on the field this season over last, but he is another guy that has yet to truly prove himself in a game situation. Perhaps, with a year under his belt of being fully committed to football he will be a better player and performer.

I think it’s fair to assume that Terrance Robinson might have a slight edge on Jeremy Gallon, but both guys have been highly touted and have a lot of talent. It will be interesting to see if one of these guys emerges and takes playing time away from Grady.

What to Expect: Homeboy Roundtree is going to have a great season. He’s shown great body control, ball control and route running ability and is a self-proclaimed hard worker and has said several times that he’s looking to play with that “Hard Edge”. Look for Grady to get his shot, with T. Rob and Gallon on his heels all season.

Tight End

The Sitch: As long as Koger and Webb stay healthy, this will be a strength for the Michigan offense. Koger has shown some flashes of brilliance, but has also been inconsistent. Assuming he’s matured as he is another guy that’s been in the system for three years now, Koger is a high-potential guy. While the tight ends aren’t used in the spread as much as in the pro-style offense, RR has said several times that tight ends are generally used in about 70% of plays. Martell Webb is a solid backup that brings some experience to the table and will see the field a lot this fall.

What to Expect: Kevin Koger to have a fantastic year, but he still won’t see more than two or three balls thrown his way per game. Michigan has so much talent on the outside and in the slot, not to mention the guys behind center, that the tight ends may get neglected a bit. Of course, the opposite may ring true, Koger and Webb might get more open if the slots and wide receivers are garnishing more attention from opposing defenses because of their success. Tight end is always a tough position to forecast from a reception productivity standpoint. Definitely a position of strength for Michigan this season.

Offensive Line

The Sitch: Finally, Michigan has an experienced offensive line under Rich Rodriguez. A lot of these guys have been in the program all three years and now have a boatload of game experience. Steve Schilling alone has started in 36 games out of 37 in his career at Michigan. David Molk might be the most important guy on this entire offense. Things really began to fall apart in 2009 after Molk went down once and then again in the Penn State game. You’ll find many people that feel Molk’s injury combined with Forcier’s shoulder injury were the difference of a few games last seasons.

You’ve got young guys like Taylor Lewan pushing older fellas like Perry Dorrestein and Mark Huyge. Patrick Omameh has looked great and performed relatively well when his number was called last season. The group as a whole is much bigger and stronger – they have been Barwis-ized so they have put on the muscle mass while maintaining their agility.

What to Expect: The O line will probably be Michigan’s deepest unit and it should be the key to an extremely productive offense. RR will be able to shuffle fresh legs in and out through the course of a game and should someone go down – there’s a quality, experienced back up that can step without the offense missing a beat. The collective starts of the entire unit from 2009 adds up to 37 – the experience gained, not to mention the strength and bulk gained in the offseason, all amounts to a group of guys that have had opportunities to grow and gel as a cohesive unit.

Below is a cool interview from Off Tackle Empire with Rich Rod because they actually talk about football and go through some game tape. Nothing ground breaking, but nice to see an interview in a bit of a different format from his office and not the presser room. Enjoy…