To the game…

On Offense…

You are almost guaranteed to win a college football game when your offense does the following…

• 28 first downs
• 1 penalty
• 0 turnovers
• Nearly 37 minutes of possession
• 14-19 on 3rd down conversions
• 4-4 in the red zone, 3 touchdowns
• Drives of 14, 19, 11, and 15 plays

Do these things and you are winning that ball game every single time. The ability of Denard Robinson to throw the ball completely handcuffed UConn’s defensive unit, see every third down and 7+ that Denard converted on.

Thoughts on the QB Depth Chart
I don’t doubt that Denard can continue to play extremely well. I also still believe that, based on the comments from Tate Forcier’s father, that Rodriguez wasn’t done disciplining Tate. There’s no way Devin Gardner has passed up Tate on the depth chart. Michigan is going to be in games where Denard’s legs for one reason or another, can’t convert over 50% of third downs. Coach Rod knows that Denard’s 29 carries is probably too many – and the scare when Denard went down at the end of the 3rd quarter is what happens when you have a guy like Denard. Denard’s fearlessness is fantastic, but it may get him injured at some point. Bottom line, it’s my presumption that Tate’s influencers around him are echoing these same things and letting him know that he is going to be critical to this team’s success at some point this season.

Denard Robinson…
Because the Denard media binge and love-fest is already outta control – briefly…Denard has learned to read the defense and do what the coaches are teaching. In turn, defense exhibit A could not contain him and he effortlessly converted 2nd and long, 3rd and long and got 7+ yards time after time on first down. I’d be willing to bet that Denard is the only QB in the country accelerating through defenders as he does in the clip below. Now that he’s proven he can throw effectively, tiny running lanes are all Denard needs to convert.

Mike Shaw…
I thought Mike Shaw had a great game carrying the ball, despite any lacking in the box score. He seems stronger this year and he ran with authority on Saturday. More than once, he easily could have been tackled behind the line of scrimmage, but busted a move and managed to churn out something positive…like the below… On the touchdown, Mike showed that he can run with authority and hit the hole going full speed while keeping his balance. He showed that he’s going to be an asset out as a receiver out of the backfield as well. Was impressed with this guy on Saturday.

Vincent Smith…
I dig what Vincent Smith brings to the table. He’s a grinder and much more often than not he is pushing the defender back for an extra yard or three. He’s short, but powerful, and it can’t be easy for opposing defenders to find him as he is patiently picking his way through the zone blocking in front of him. On his first touchdown, Vincent got lost in the shuffle, was patient and broke a tackle to get in to the end zone.

The Offensive Line…
Ton of credit to these guys. They opened up holes for Shaw, Smith and Denard all day long. Definitely a scare when Molk went down, but he looked more tired than anything. He came back in almost immediately, much like Denard after he went down with an apparent injury in the 3rd quarter. If these guys can stay healthy, Michigan’s offense should continue to have lots of success on the ground and through the air all season long.

Receivers / Slots…
Give these guys a lot of credit as well. While most of the yards came on the ground, they converted when given the opportunity. Not all games will play out like this one – the passing game will be more prevalent as the season gets under way. Finally, Terrance Robinson got into the action on a beautiful bubble screen fake from Denard that forced the safety out of position – opening up the entire middle of the field. I thought Grady did okay with his opportunities, but I think he needs to show more if he wants to keep getting as many touches. Odoms and Stonum were both solid and these two guys look to be the most consistent, well-rounded of the bunch.

On Defense…

Defense came out and played well – holding UConn to 10 points was not expected by anyone. The consensus was a thirty something to thirty something ball game. Some stats worthy of noting…

• UConn completion rate held to 47%
• Forced 1 turnover
• UConn 4 – 15 on 3rd down conversions
• 1 blocked kick
• 10 POINTS

Obviously, only allowing 10 points is key. Forcing a turnover in the red zone and blocking a field goal – both extremely critical in Michigan’s general comfort level that grew as the game pushed on in the 3rd and 4th quarters. All in all, based on what happened last season, I don’t envision this defense getting full of themselves at any point this season. The degree of last season’s defensive collapse was so severe that there’s no way it escapes the minds of the coaches or returning players.

J.T. Floyd & James Rogers
Both these guys had solid games – and I was pleasantly surprised by the play of James Rogers. He was extremely active and seems to be a ball hawk. Makes me wonder where he’s been his whole career. J.T. was solid as well, especially in run D support and he may have had the biggest play of the entire day…below my friends…

Linebackers…
Obi Ezeh and James Mouton both lead the team in tackles with 9 and 8 respectively. Mouton laid the wood on some UConn guys on a few plays. Craig Roh lead the team with 2 tackles for loss. Based on the eye test, I would have to say that both Roh and Mouton outplayed Ezeh. I noticed Obi was out of position or seemed to over-pursue on a few plays. Overall speed was good and they were out to hit someone. Moundros looked good out there and definitely looks the part.

On Special Teams…

Michigan only punted one time for 51 yards – not bad for young Will Hagerup. The kicking game had some issues – it was to be expected in light of the youth and also the swirling winds. Gibbons missed from 43 yards out and made from 24. Gibbons also missed an extra point – and it sounds like Drew Dileo had some issues getting the ball down as the holder. A must fix before heading to South Bend this week. Kick coverages weren’t bad.

Some extra… Andy Staples CNNSI, Forcier – don’t be foolish stay at Michigan, Denard love @ Dr. Saturday, UConn happy it’s over.

Will update as more comes through…

Rich Rodriguez…

• On injuries. Roy Roundtree is doubtful with internal bruises. Carvin Johnson very doubtful with sprained MCL
• Roundtree internal bruising/bleeding doubtful for ND. Carvin Johnson sprained knee “very” doubtful
• junior hemingway still unclear
• On compliments: “It’s like poison. It’s good, as long as you don’t swallow it.”
• On NotreDame defense: “I think they’d be pretty satisfied with the way their defense played last week.”
• Rodriguez doesn’t seem concerned about Denard hype after the game. Says Denard is a humble guy, will remind him to stay hungry.
• Thomas Gordon and Floyd SImmons will replace Carvin Johnson if he’s out
• On secondary, now missing Woolfolk and C. Johnson: “We’re kind of hanging on in the secondary a little bit.”
• Doesn’t know Kelly well but “I’m sure we’ve watched each other on film over the years.”
• Rodriguez, smiling: Think you’d be surprised if Denard doesn’t start? … He’s earned the start.
• “I’m concerned with all our players, every one of our players all the time. What you do on the field and off the field.”
• “I don’t blame guys for being disappointed if they don’t play.”
• On Tate: says he understands players being dissapointed not playing. Clearly not suggesting Tate going anywhere
• On if he talked with Tate since Saturday: “Why? Is there a reason to?”
• Said kicking competition will be ongoing.
• “We have three really good quarterbacks, I think, who are just going to get better.”
• Jared Van Slyke is out for the year.
• Rodriguez just joked it always seems to rain when he goes to Notre Dame
• “It’s a team game. It’s all about the team.”

Kevin Koger…

• Denard made correct reads
• “Good to go out and show people what we are capable of”
• Mentions the noise and tall grass at Notre Dame from his freshman year.
• The passes in the first quarter from Denard forced the defense to be honest and respect the pass.
• Denard is a lot stronger than last year, took a lot of hits Saturday
• On downfield blocking: “all comes down to effort, we gotta give more effort on the outside to spring big plays…”
• With so many big play guys, sustaining blocks downfield is key
• Can definitely notice the difference regarding a louder Big House.

Mike Shaw…

• Always hard on himself after games and looking to improve…
• Coaches look for stability and consistency from the backs, no fumbles
• Roy Roundtree was “thrilled” watching the hit that knocked him out. He likes that type of playing.
• “I am a student athlete”…”had to put my nose in the dirt and make sure I took care of school before anything else…”
• “UConn wasn’t ready for a guy back there with 4.3 speed”
• On Denard: “sept 4 was denards show I had no problem being supporting cast”
• On Notre Dame: “freshman year…rowdy crowd”
• Oline making big strides and are only getting better.

Obi Ezeh…

• Fumble recovery reminded him last year’s at MSU…said he got smacked in the face right after the recovery
• “Jonas played awesome…wreaking a lot habit.”
• Last year: “use that as motivation for this year…I just want to win.”
• It all starts with the Dline – Mike Martin double teamed for almost the whole game
• Were ready for the uptempo offense that UConn was running at times
• On Notre Dame: “Big game on a big stage…want to make a statement”

Ryan Van Bergen…

• Played well but can continue to get better…
• No sacks on Saturday, but were facing a 5 or 6 blockers
• On secondary: “With experience, will really improve their play…”
• “Denard is accurate as a passer and defenses will struggle with his ability to run and pass throughout the season…”
• Has gained 20-25 lbs and all D linemen are in even better shape than last year. Appreciate and credit the strength staff
• Obi is extremely resilient and his leadership has always been there
• Having a lot of fun at D end…game slows down a bit when you are 2 feet from a guy as opposed to 2 inches

In the tables below…St = Starts and App = Game Appearances.

QB

The Sitch: This is the magical unit in the Rodriguez spread style offense, but if you ask me, that’s an overused statement because it holds true in every offense. As the opener approaches, it’s becoming apparent that the coaching staff is feeling comfortable with the play of Denard, Tate and Devin. RR saying all three may play and that Devin will not be redshirting as he is mature enough both physically and mentally.

When I analyze these three guys, especially Tate and Denard, I have a hard time making judgments on what happens during spring and fall practice as opposed to what I’ve seen in games. The spring game is just too different from a game for me to fully put stock in the hype around Denard. No question, he needs to be on the field in some capacity. If you didn’t know, he’s kinda fast. If Denard is the starter and if he indeed does take the majority of the snaps, it’s because of the followings: he has a better grasp of the playbook, his accuracy / confidence throwing the ball is much better / higher, and his decision making is waaay improved as a product of knowing the playbook and having more confidence.

I live near Cincinnati, so I answer to a bunch of wannabe truck driver buckeye fans regarding why Denard is starting over Tate, Tate is transferring because it’s what they do in that family, etc. It doesn’t really matter, at all, who takes the first snap and first couple series against UConn. I agree with Angelique Chengelis that the Michigan fan base and college football world has made way too much of who gets the start.

What to Expect: Denard Robinson will be taking the first snaps against UConn – put that one in the bank. My best guess, after seeing all the interviews, press conferences, spring game, beanie bowl highlights, etc. is that Denard will get a 2-5 series leash before you will see Tate get in the ball game. From that point it’s a feel thing for Rich Rod – so whichever guy looks most promising up against UConn’s defense is the guy that is going to stay in the game. Expect to see Devin in the ball game if Michigan creates some separation on the scoreboard, but don’t put any coin on him seeing the field if this game is remotely close. RR will have to side with the guys that have more experience even if Devin is playing up to Tate and Denard’s level.

Running Back

The Sitch: Without a sure starter coming back, there’s a bit of speculation as to who is going to stand out and get the bulk of the carries when it counts. Both guys with some game experience will most likely get the first cracks at it, Mike Shaw and Vincent Smith. Smith is going to be used more between the tackles and Shaw on the outside. Smith has the shiftiness and some of that knack that Mike Hart had to always get a few more yards than you think he will. Shaw has really not lived up to his potential yet. He’s a guy with great speed, but lacks consistency and doesn’t have much power whatsoever.

The guy that a lot of people are ready to see is Mike Cox. Mike is a guy that has had good moments in clean up duty and is regarded as the best overall athlete of the group. Should Mike prove to be a gamer, he could add some real depth to this group and barring injuries, give RR a solid three to four guys to feel comfortable with in the backfield.

What to Expect: Vincent Smith is your starter against UConn, but Mike Shaw, Mike Cox and Stephen Hopkins are all very likely to see some carries. I look for Vincent Smith to emerge as the most consistent back on read option runs because of his ability to squirt through the big guys up front. Smith had no problem snagging 4 to 7 yards on first down for most of his touches against Ohio State last year – so more of the same is to be expected this season. Getting a 1,000 yard rusher out of this group would be great, but I don’t see it happening.

Wide Receiver

The Sitch: This is no doubt a talented group with a ton of game experience. One surprise that came out of camp was RR sticking Martavious Odoms on the outside. A move warranted by Odoms’ knowledge of the system and his physical nature. Stonum has had an outstanding fall camp and is primed for a breakout season (with a new vision thanks to some contacts).

Hemingway is a guy that has looked great at times, but can’t seem to stay healthy. It’s hard to expect a lot of him simply because he hasn’t really proven himself after two seasons being a starter going into the opener. I think he has the potential to be a solid contributor.

What to Expect: Stonum is going to have a big season on the outside as Michigan’s only real deep threat, not to mention his proven ability to return kickoffs. If Odoms can stay healthy, he’ll be a mainstay on the edge as his ability to block is critical for several plays going to the slot. If any of the young guys need to step up, expect Je’Ron Stokes and true freshman Jeremy Jackson to get their shot.

Slot Receiver

The Sitch: Roy Roundtree was straight up a receiving beast over the last four games in ’09. Roundtree is fully expected to top the group when it comes to both leadership and production. He’s a dude that is quickly becoming a favorite among both the local media and fans. Kelvin Grady looks positioned to also see more time on the field this season over last, but he is another guy that has yet to truly prove himself in a game situation. Perhaps, with a year under his belt of being fully committed to football he will be a better player and performer.

I think it’s fair to assume that Terrance Robinson might have a slight edge on Jeremy Gallon, but both guys have been highly touted and have a lot of talent. It will be interesting to see if one of these guys emerges and takes playing time away from Grady.

What to Expect: Homeboy Roundtree is going to have a great season. He’s shown great body control, ball control and route running ability and is a self-proclaimed hard worker and has said several times that he’s looking to play with that “Hard Edge”. Look for Grady to get his shot, with T. Rob and Gallon on his heels all season.

Tight End

The Sitch: As long as Koger and Webb stay healthy, this will be a strength for the Michigan offense. Koger has shown some flashes of brilliance, but has also been inconsistent. Assuming he’s matured as he is another guy that’s been in the system for three years now, Koger is a high-potential guy. While the tight ends aren’t used in the spread as much as in the pro-style offense, RR has said several times that tight ends are generally used in about 70% of plays. Martell Webb is a solid backup that brings some experience to the table and will see the field a lot this fall.

What to Expect: Kevin Koger to have a fantastic year, but he still won’t see more than two or three balls thrown his way per game. Michigan has so much talent on the outside and in the slot, not to mention the guys behind center, that the tight ends may get neglected a bit. Of course, the opposite may ring true, Koger and Webb might get more open if the slots and wide receivers are garnishing more attention from opposing defenses because of their success. Tight end is always a tough position to forecast from a reception productivity standpoint. Definitely a position of strength for Michigan this season.

Offensive Line

The Sitch: Finally, Michigan has an experienced offensive line under Rich Rodriguez. A lot of these guys have been in the program all three years and now have a boatload of game experience. Steve Schilling alone has started in 36 games out of 37 in his career at Michigan. David Molk might be the most important guy on this entire offense. Things really began to fall apart in 2009 after Molk went down once and then again in the Penn State game. You’ll find many people that feel Molk’s injury combined with Forcier’s shoulder injury were the difference of a few games last seasons.

You’ve got young guys like Taylor Lewan pushing older fellas like Perry Dorrestein and Mark Huyge. Patrick Omameh has looked great and performed relatively well when his number was called last season. The group as a whole is much bigger and stronger – they have been Barwis-ized so they have put on the muscle mass while maintaining their agility.

What to Expect: The O line will probably be Michigan’s deepest unit and it should be the key to an extremely productive offense. RR will be able to shuffle fresh legs in and out through the course of a game and should someone go down – there’s a quality, experienced back up that can step without the offense missing a beat. The collective starts of the entire unit from 2009 adds up to 37 – the experience gained, not to mention the strength and bulk gained in the offseason, all amounts to a group of guys that have had opportunities to grow and gel as a cohesive unit.

Shenanigans aside now – here’s my list of the guys that seem to have the best personalities, guys that seem very approachable, intelligent, get it done in practice and on the field, model players and teammates that any fan, student, alumni, or coach would want representing the University of Michigan.

1. Roy Roundtree.
   The dude just can’t not have a smile on his face and all indications are that he’s an extremely hard worker all the time. He speaks as if he’s taken a leadership role at least within his position group. Big things are expected out of Roundtree this fall.
   [Countdown to Kickoff Video - Media Day Video - BTN Interview]
2. Craig Roh.
   “Death Roh” as he is becoming known as among Michigan fans. As a true freshman he showed what he can do on the field. He’s added some 20+ pounds in the offseason and should be a great player for a few more years.
   [CBS Sports Interview - Countdown to Kickoff]
3. Troy Woolfolk.
   On the field or not, Troy is one of the defined leaders and all around great personalities on this team. Know for his split personality – with “TWoolf” being his on-field persona – he’s definitely a media, fan and player favorite.
4. David Molk.
   All indications are that his presence on the field means a ton to Michigan, but all you have to do is watch his media day interview to instantly like this guy. He says “the reason I like football, is because you get to hit people. I like to hit people really fuckin’ hard.” I’m 90% confident that he doesn’t say freakin’ there and goes for the expletive.
   [Media Day Interview]
5. Denard Robinson.
   Similar to Roundtree, Denard always has a smile on his face and seems to have a confidence and positive attitude that can’t be shaken. Should Denard become a true leader on this team, you can see that it will not be forced and he’ll be a natural leader. For whatever reason, people seem to gravitate to Denard and want to rally behind him. With all of the spring and fall camp hype around Denard – a different style of play is expected out of him starting September 4th.
   [Media Day Interview - Post-Spring Game Interview]
6. Mike Martin.
   This is a man I wouldn’t want pissed off at me. He’s a beast, a champion wrestler and an intense football player. Martin will anchor an experienced defensive line and brings a lot of personality and leadership to the team. Martin was fortunate enough to play alongside of Brandon Graham last season and it’d be great if Martin could pick up where BG left off. Martin made my list after he sacked Terrelle Pryor last season, lost his helmet, and got up like the crazy dude that he is (see video below).
   [Media Day Interview - BTN Interview - Countdown to Kickoff]

7. J.T. Floyd.
   Picked up some feedback from folks that went to Media Day and heard how great of a guy J.T. seemed to be. He definitely struggled on the field last year, but he’s been a guy that the coaches and players have talked about all spring and fall. With Woolfolk going down, J.T. becomes the default leader of the secondary on the field. While that is scary, after checking out J.T. in a couple interviews and Countdown to Kickoff – he seems like he’s got a good head on his shoulders and is up to the challenge.
   [Media Day Interview - Countdown to Kickoff]
8. Tate Forcier.
   While you may not agree with me – Tate is on my list. Lots of Michigan fans would disagree and consider Forcier, a guy who admittedly has slacked off in the offseason, as more of a cancer to this team and a guy that people generally dislike. Disagree my friend I must, Tate is a very talented, extremely accurate QB, that I think most people underestimate as a whole. Tate made A LOT of freshman mistakes last year, but if you put those aside, he showed a lot of promise and had several great plays even in the Ohio State game. Not to mention, the guy handled himself perfectly on media day, addressing some tough questions several times and admitting his mistakes, downfalls, etc. A polarizing guy like Tate, can have a big impact on the team by showing an extreme level of commitment after Woolfolk called him out.
   [Media Day Interview]
9. Mark Moundros.
   This guy is all about Michigan succeeding and he’ll do whatever it takes to help the team perform better on the field. In his final year, he decides to learn a new position and does such a good job throughout his transition – his teammates elected him to be a season-long captain. Talk from camp is that Moundros will definitely see the field, if not be a starter.
10. Cam Gordon.
    Cam is another guy that has been asked to hit up the opposite side of the ball to help his team. And at this point, all indications are that Cam is going to start in the defensive backfield. Cam is a hitter and looks like a natural safety. He can definitely lay the wood to people as evidenced in the video linked below. I don’t know much about the guy, but I like what I see and you can’t help but not like a guy that is a pure hitter in the secondary.
    [Spring Highlight of the Day - Spring Interview]

EDIT. Honorable Mention additions – this is a growing list by the day. Echoing some of the comments I’ve seen today around the message boards – Rich Rod is recruiting a lot of very well spoken players that seem to be all about winning for Michigan and playing for the team.

• Terrance Robinson – Countdown to Kickoff
• Vladimir Emilien
• Tayler Lewan – 2 Minute Drill
• Kelvin Grady – Countdown to Kickoff

Let’s be honest here – MGoFootball is no MGoBlog – but I will not discredit myself as a Michigan fan and a knowledgeable one at that. On that note, I’ve been involved in some discussions lately about who is going to start at QB this season. The casual UM fan or the jabbing Ohio State fan will bring it up and want to know what’s going on and “are they really going to start dude that had all the fumbles and interceptions last year?” If you go back and watch select games from last year – you’d have to believe Denard Robinson improved two-fold to even be in consideration for the starting spot over Tate.

Know this: the guy who gets the start on September 4th means as much as that flapjack I didn’t eat last weekend. This is how it’s going to be – regardless of who takes the first snap against UCONN – both are going to see significant playing time and the more successful QB will be called out on to the field more often than not.

tate forcier

Assumptions on Tate
Tate finished last season, aside from a nasty spell of turnovers against OSU, on a fairly strong note and played very well closing out the last few games. I believe what I see – and based on what I witnessed last season – Tate will give this team more opportunities to win ball games from start to finish than Denard. However, and more to come on Denard later, there is no doubt that Tate cannot get by this season if he hasn’t improved significantly from the end of last season.

Assumptions on Denard
Denard proved himself as an athlete last year. It’s hard to stomach him sitting on the sideline and not in the game. So it’s fair to assume that he is going to be used more this season as both a QB and as an athlete with the intent of getting in open space with the ball. Denard didn’t get much of a shot last year as a passer, but he didn’t give the coaches much of a reason to believe he deserved more than what he got. That being said, you cannot dismiss how Denard performed in both Spring practice and the Spring Game. Denard is going to get his shot this season to be the guy – we’ll see how he handles it. The key to Denard’s success is holding on the ball and making the right reads. He does those two things – his athleticism and speed will take care of the rest.

denard robinson

Let’s just hope…
Both guys can stay healthy during fall practice and throughout the season. Tate’s level of bangedupness was well documented last year and apparently affected his play to a certain degree. Should both guys make it through the entire season unscathed, this gives Michigan an opportunity to leverage their collective skills against different types of defenses. I’d say, in all likelihood, at some point one of those guys is going to get banged up to the point where they can’t go one or more weeks.

Yes…optimism…
Tate and Denard stay healthy and play well enough to create a positive QB controversy in between all the conversation about a team rising from the depths of a two-year funk. You do realize that once Michigan emerges from the past two years – it will most definitely be a distant memory – one that will be referred to a minute ‘funk’ that a great program once endured.

EDIT: Ran into this video last night and figured I’d share. Denard executing against Iowa in the close lost in last year’s night cap in Iowa City.

Every once in a while I sit down at my computer and fire up last years game agains OSU or MSU. I’ll choose to watch that final drive of the MSU game where Tate took the offense over 90 yards with a couple minutes to go to tie the game. I’ll watch certain pieces of the OSU game where Michigan moved the ball at will against them. If you’re reading this – you’re just as ready for this next college football season to get rolling as I am. Here are ten reasons that I’m excited for this season – and quasi-why I think Michigan can come away with 8 wins…

1. An experienced QB is going to be on the field. Yeah, there hasn’t been one of those in a while now has there. I know there is a lot of chatter out there now that spring ball has been well under way – that both Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner are challenging Tate Forcier for the starting spot. It’s a lot of hype. It’s justifiable to an extent because Devin and Denard to talented and great athletes, but I’d be shocked if anyone but Tate starts on September 4th agains UCONN. As I watch some of last year’s moments – Tate played like an erratic freshman at times, but damn he played well at other times and made some incredible plays on the run.
2. Big House is Money. The home opener against UCONN officially marks the completion and grand opening of the Michigan Stadium renovation project. I made it to three home games last year and thought that the stadium looked damn awesome. So I expect it to be even better without the old press box and people filling up those boxes. A victory against UCONN would sure make September 4th a great day to go along with what will be a pretty cool day at Michigan Stadium.
3. The D-line will be solid. Many feel that the defensive line will be the strongest part of the defense – and I agree. With a healthy Mike Martin, along with big Will Campbell, Ryan Van Bergen and Craig Roh – the d-line should show some real speed and power. Will Campbell should turn into a force that will have to be double-teamed much of the time. Even though Brandon Graham is gone – damn was he illmatic last year – the overall strength of the line should be improved.
4. Roy Roundtree. I’m a huge fan of what Roundtree was able to do in the last few games last year – starting with the Purdue game. He’s got great hands and some decent speed (being mindful of the horrid showing at Illinios). I look for him to be a staple of steady production and I think he’ll continue to be Tate’s favorite target.
5. Beating at least 2 out of 3 rivals. With Michigan State coming to Ann Arbor and Notre Dame having what should be an inexperienced offense – I fully expect Michigan to win at least those two games. I don’t think I can stomach losing either one – dropping 3 in a row to State just ain’t an option – especially a third one in the Big House.
6. Denard Robinson. (glasses up!) Here’s to Denard getting on the field more and finding the ball in his arms. He’s just too fast and too good of an athlete to not have on the field more often than he was last season. I think that Rich Rod will plug him into more sets early in ball games to get his legs going and to get him some touches – even if it’s not at quarterback.
7. What happens on the field will matter most. I’m tired of off the field issues dominating the media for this program. It will stop if Michigan can start strong like last year – but maintain some continuity relative to winning. A winning season cures all problems as far as I’m concerned. Once the season starts – the NCAA allegations are in the rearview mirror and Michigan’s play on the field will dominate what finds it’s way into the headlines and blogs. Definitely excited about that.
8. An improved secondary. Don’t laugh. I’m serious. The secondary will be better this year simply because there will be more talent. Donovan Warren’s departure, while it’s somewhat of a hit, I don’t think it’s going to negatively affect this unit as most think it will. Donovan was good – but as you can clearly see by what the NFL scouts think – he ain’t all that and probably shoudl have stuck around for his senior season. I think with the incoming talent – Cullen Christian, Demar Dorsey, etc. – these guys should put some speed back there that Michigan hasn’t had in a number of years. Let’s not forget – Cam Gordon made the switch from offense to defense and from all the reports seems to be a natural fit back there. Michigan hasn’t had a natural fit back at safety in longer than I can remember – so I’m going to say this unit has nowhere to go but up – and will indeed do so.
9. The year 2 to year 3 jump. I expect the jump from year 2 to year 3 to be a hair better than 1 to 2. You can’t argue the point that last year’s team was 10 times more fun to watch than the team that RR fielded in 2008. The talent at the skill positions – namely QB – was just far superior. I expect that same effect to take place at other positions on the field – specifically the defense. My initial, spring camp-ish season win expectations sit right at about 8 games. Not sure how they are going to do it, but I think it can and will be done.
10. Damnit it’s college football season. Even though it’s been a tough couple of seasons being a Michigan fan. Part of me doesn’t even care – because I know that things will get turned around eventually – and when it does it’s going to be mother fucking sweet. I know if you’ve read this far – you agree with me. So I’ll be tickled that it’s time for college football once the season rolls around – and that in and of itself is a damn good reason to be excited for this upcoming, 2010 Michigan Wolverine football squad.

Go Blue

I’m cool. Real cool. It’s all good. Seriously.
A fury of circumstances has turned me against writing anything for about an entire week. Most of all, I just needed a mental break from thinking about this football program and how this once promising season turned to dog poo. It sucks to be on the bottom of the Big 11. It sucks even worse to lose to rivals again. But it’s cool, really. This is something many elite programs have experienced, because they all go through transitions and most take time. Faster would be nicer, but it will happen.

Thoughts on the Ohio State game
I watched this game at a bar near Dayton, OH and I can tell you that I was one of two Michigan fans out of at least 100 people, and they were worried as Michigan found ways to move the ball. Unfortunately, Forcier found ways to make me drink more beer and not really threaten the OSU lead as the game was winding down. Also, most OSU fans were on my side relative to the hideousness of those throwback uniforms.

Tate had several nice plays throughout this game. The offense played relatively well throughout, and Vincent Smith showed signs of what a starter next year should look like. Roy Roundtree again showed that he deserves to be a starter next year along with Tay Odoms and Darryl Stonum. It was disappointing to see Brandon Minor unable to play in his final home game. Carlos Brown, or not Carlos Brown, na – still can’t break a damn tackle. Brandon Graham = freak, unreal dude. I hope BG is a top draft pick and becomes the next Lamarr Woodley.

About the whole fire Rich Rod thing.
At this point, we can all say that Rich Rodriguez has underachieved after two years as Michigan’s head coach. You cannot be pleased with the alleged NCAA allegations either. You can also scrape the news off of the Detroit Free Press, national media, Michael Wilbon, you name it; and think that Michigan needs to cut their losses with RR and bring in the next Michigan Man.

Or, you could take emotion out of it, spend the time to understand the dynamics of this roster in it’s current state, remember how bad you wanted a change after 2007, continue to remember how bad you wanted a change after 2007, and realize that year 2 was an improvement over year 1. Not a huge improvement, but 5 > 3. The offense improved by leaps and bounds, and somehow was the #1 scoring offense in the Big 11. Any team should be able to win a ball game scoring 36, see Purdue.

I see a coach that is resilient and not beaten down. As RR tells the media, they don’t know what goes on in that locker room, film room, weight room, etc. RR and his staff have created an environment where the players are very close to one another and believe in the system put in place. I’ve been pleased with RR’s demeanor in post-game press conferences, he sticks to his guns and doesn’t let ill-placed questions get the best of him. He often speaks of the bigger picture, the process, that he and his staff put their heart and soul in to – and it’s happening, just not as fast as an irrational fan wants it to.

Will Michigan be a better team in 2010?
Yes. Thank you for asking.

Why will Michigan be better offensively?
A starting quarterback is coming back, yay! And it’s a guy that is actually competent at times, yay! Tate should improve with an entire offseason to pick up where he left off after the Ohio State game. In general, Tate finished the season strong starting with the Purdue game. He will improve as he spends time adding some padding to that frame and slowing the game down in his head. Let’s just hope he’s got the work ethic to make all of that happen.

QB’s aside, the majority of the offense is back – and the unit should once again improve with another year under its belt. The year 1 to year 2 jump is always big, but so is the year 2 to 3 jump.

5 offensive players with 2010 expectations.

1. Vincent Smith
   Played lights out against Wisconsin and Ohio State, and shows the ability to break tackles and make something out of nothing. Oh yea, he can catch too.
2. Roy Roundtree
   Played lights out since the Purdue game. He’s got sure hands and great acceleration – although his breakaway speed could be improved, see Illinois game.
3. Denard Robinson / Tate Forcier
   Tate will start. Denard will play QB and find his way into other formations as a back or receiver, a la Percy Harvin. I know RR is keeping him at QB, but he’ll see time on field in other ways. Tate is a natural, it seems as though he needs to mature a bit and stay more focused during games. A lot will be expected from Tate.
4. Darryl Stonum
   Stonum really created a name for himself returning kicks this year, so that will naturally be the talk on his behalf leading into the season. Michigan needs a deep threat, and Stonum needs to be that guy. Would like to see him get a little more established as a key part of the offense.
5. David Molk
   Many believe this was Michigan’s most impactful injury of 2009, and it may have been. Once Molk was out, Michigan was out. Regardless, his rehab will be a major story and Michigan will need him back in the starting line up.

Why will Michigan be better defensively?
Greg Robinson will be here. That means this defense doesn’t have to start over with a new defensive coordinator, first time this has happened in four years. This defense was not good, and simply having some consistency from a coaching standpoint gives the case for improvement credibility. Brandon Graham is gone, and was nothing short of amazing in his senior season. He was a game-changing beast, it’s too bad that he wasn’t complimented by a couple more playmakers in the back seven. The general feel is that Donovan Warren will stick his foot in the NFL pool and decide that it’s a little too cold to jump in. Losing only Stevie Brown and BG puts nine guys back in 2010, so the simple default of improvement from experience sets in here. Woolfolk and Warren should lock down the corners if GROB finds two safeties that can play at an average to above average level of play.

5 defensive players with 2010 expectations.

1. Justin Turner
   The 5 star from Ohio redshirted last year after much speculation that he would get his shot to prove himself on gameday
2. Craig Roh
   Roh has a hell of a motor and only stands to get a lot better. He’s played relatively well and was very undersized as a true freshman. Combine his experience with an entire offseason of bulking up and Roh should have a huge impact in 2010.
3. Brandon Smith
   All Brandon’s that play at Michigan are good right? Let’s hope some of Brandon Graham’s dominance rubbed off on Brandon Smith. He’s always played well on special teams and saw some time in the final two games in the defensive backfield. He’ll get his opportunity to be a starter and make an impact, whether it’s at safety or the quick position Stevie Brown was playing.
4. Will Campbell
   Will got some decent experience as a true freshman, while he didn’t always play well, he should anchor that D-line in 2010 along with Mike Martin, Ryan Van Bergen, and Roh.
5. Donovan Warren
   I hesitated to include DW in this list, but he could stand to have an absolute breakthrough season if he comes back. His play was solid at best as the season progressed. If he comes back, he’ll be the spokesperson for the defense.

What do I do now?
Watch Michigan basketball have a decent season, hopefully better than last year. Watch Michigan’s hockey team recover from a rough start. Assume that the Michigan football program can stay out of the negative headline category this offseason. Let time do its thing. Then as next fall approaches, get psyched about a team that should give Michigan a winning season and a bowl game. It’s fun being optimistic, because that means we’re talking 8 or 9 wins for this team next season.

Thoughts on the Game – The Good

• Brandon Graham again played like a beast. Too bad he couldn’t pick up his blocked punt and take it to the house. Maybe that could have changed around the momentum in Michigan’s favor.
• The first drive with David Molk and Tay Odoms in the game looked great. Marched 70 yards in 11 plays that essentially teased Michigan fans into thinking it would be a great day to be a Michigan Wolverine.
• Jason Olesnavage hit his only field goal attempt? – Yeah not many positives to take away from this thing I’m calling a debacle.

THE BAD and THE U G L Y

• Tate had a couple decent throws, but also really missed some receivers. Tate walked into a few sacks and again shows that he doesn’t have much patience when he’s in the pocket.
• Denard again throws a pick on a play where the officials missed Penn State having 12 guys on the field at the time the play was snapped. Too many turnovers from Denard. If he wants to be a major contributor he simply has to take care of the ball better.
• The effort on the Maize Out, the rain, the Penn State fans making some serious noise towards the end of the game.
• Junior Hemingway and Donovan Warren colliding on a punt return – although Hemingway claims that he will be back next week.
• Defensive ineptitude. Darryl Clark did what he wanted all day long. His guys were wide open and he put it where it needed to be.
• Moosman and Forcier costing the team 2 points. How does this keep happening? If Molk can’t go next week, and I doubt he will, Moosman and Forcier should spend an entire practice working on snaps. Unbelievable.
• No vertical passing game with the exception of the ball to Matthews towards the end of the first half.

I’m calling this week’s Illinois game a MUST WIN for this team. They need it bad for their confidence, to become bowl eligible, and simply because they haven’t played well for weeks.

My little sister is a sophomore at Ball State – so while Michigan was walking all over Delaware State I was attending Ball State’s family weekend and watching the winless Ball State Cardinals get smoked by Bowling Green in Muncie, IN. There simply is nothing like college football on a Saturday in the fall. Even though I was at what was really a terrible football game, I was happy to be in the presence of a couple teams laying it all out on the field. I was happily updating and tracking the game on my phone as Michigan mercilessly scored TD after TD in the first half. Later on Saturday night I fired up the DVR to catch a the highlights of the day – it’s interesting knowing how the box score played out and then watching the game.

Quick on Delaware State
Without getting into all the statistical ins and outs of what happened on Saturday – it was clear that this game is a positive thing for Michigan as a whole. It’s games like these that bring a team together and helps the unity of a 110+ man roster. To see players get actual game playing time in the Big House is something that their families will be talking about for the rest of their life. As Brian over on Mgoblog mentioned, this game moved Michigan up 35 spots in total offense and up 20 spots in total defense. So the game did wonders for Michigan statistically, but that’s about it. The depth chart essentially remains the same for Penn State as there were no serious injuries and no second or third stringer stood out enough to jump a current starter.

Penn State
Last year Michigan proved that they could run the ball in Happy Valley – well it was more Brandon Minor and MINOR RAGE than anything. Nevertheless, Michigan needs to duplicate that effort on the ground for a full 4 quarters this Saturday if they want to beat Penn State. Per RR in Monday’s press conference, Michigan’s starting center David Molk is going to practice and should see time on the field this week. Now, whether or not he will start – not sure yet.

PSU really hasn’t beaten anybody this year, but did control most of that game against Iowa and just completely dominated a decent offensive-minded Minnesota team. Their struggles with the ground game offensively were well documented after their extraordinarily perennially weak non-conference schedule. A few things that I am looking for this coming Saturday:

• When does Denard Robinson get his first snap? I’m guessing second quarter
• Is David Molk going to start? I’m guessing that he will
• Does Troy Woolfolk continue to play strong at the corner position? I’m guessing that he does as he showed he can hang in the Iowa game
• Can the Safeties bring it for an entire game? This could be an issue, I haven’t seen Mike Williams play a complete game yet
• How is time split in the backfield? I’m guessing Minor gets the start – and the remaining carries are split between Brown, Shaw and maybe even Smith
• How will the receivers be involved in the game plan? It seems as though Greg Matthews or Darryl Stonum is due for a big game

Should Michigan get a victory this weekend – they will inch up in the standings, but will need some help down the road from Iowa and Michigan State if they are thinking championship.

Week 7 Big 10 Standings

• Can Michigan’s offensive line give some life to a dead Michigan ground game?
• Carlos Brown didn’t make the trip to Iowa City on reports of a concussion he encountered earlier in the week and rumor has it that Boubacar Cissoko didn’t make the trip either
• Another rumor that has been flying around – Michigan may be wearing white pants instead of maize pants for the first time since the 1970′s. Over on Mgoblog – there is quite the thread on the topic…
  
  

  Michigan Unis

• Apparently Denard Robinson was seen this week in practice in the same backfield as Tate Forcier – so it will be interesting to see what kind of offensive wrinkles RR throws in to the package this week

How Michigan can get a Win

1. Solid Offensive Line Play
   This is an obvious one. Michigan couldn’t run the ball last week – the running game was PATHETIC. Carlos Brown isn’t playing, so Brandon Minor is going to get most of the carries. Perhaps Minor can get into some type of rhythm? We’ll see, it all depends on the dudes up front and whether or not they can open some holes and control Iowa’s good front 7. Expect to see Mike Shaw in the mix to change it up a bit. Another thing to keep your eye on will be the capacity that Denard Robinson is used.
2. The Turnover Battle
   Another obvious one. Michigan probably has to win the turnover battle to get a dubya here. Iowa QB Stanzi is known for making some bonehead decisions and tossing a couple bad picks. Hopefully Michigan can get a couple turnovers and either get some points or help give the offense some good field position.
3. Tate Forcier Early
   Tate needs to play solid for 4 quarters – not just one. Not that the dismal offensive production against Michigan State was all Tate’s fault – because it wasn’t. But if Tate can make some of those great plays from the get-go, Michigan’s chances are much better and hopefully the defense can get some rest.
4. Forcing 3 & Outs
   Michigan’s defense has to get off the field and allow the offense to get into a ryhthm. This was the ultimate killer last week as Michigan seemed to play strong on 1st and 2nd down, but then couldn’t get the job done on 3rd down. Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton need to step it up and play their best game of the season. Troy WoolfoRk might be playing corner – so it will be critical that the new defensive backfield alignment is not detrimental.
5. The Weather & Turf
   This might be a stretch, but perhaps it’s not. It’s going to be cold – like mid 30′s and there were reports of snow this morning in Iowa City. How will Tate and Denard handle the chilly-ness? I think they will be fine, but you never know. Also, Michigan played on grass last week and definitely has some footing issues – see Brandon Minor’s slip and fall while wide open. If it were to rain or get slick – this should play to the smaller and quicker Michigan squad.

Items of Interest

The Big Ten Network talks with Rich Rod about Iowa…

Big Ten Network Preview…

From the Michigan Daily – Iowa Run D will be too much for Michigan, and Minor should have a bigger role.

ESPN’s preview and prediction…

QB Tate Forcier’s ability to improvise and make plays on the move makes Michigan dangerous, but look for Iowa to win at home because of its offensive line. The Hawkeyes’ front five will get the better of an active and talented Michigan defensive front, allowing Iowa to keep Stanzi out of a lot of third-and-long situations with an effective ground game. The offensive line also will give Stanzi enough time to go through his progressions and space to step into his throws when the Hawkeyes do drop back to pass.

Prediction: Hawkeyes 24, Wolverines 20

The Diag’s Preview – HERE

If Michigan Wins – This is How it’s Goin’ Down

Michigan gets first downs. I’m not saying that they are going to get the running game jumpin’ and pound the ball down field all day, but I do think they can move the ball with a could mix of playcalls. Stanzi will have to make a few mistakes that Michigan must capitalize on – and give Michigan some life and confidence early in the ball game. Last week, Michigan’s offense didn’t see the ball in the first half – obviously that simply cannot happen this week if Michigan wants a chance at winning. The D is going to have to control the line of scrimmage – I think BG continues his dominence in this game as well. IF Michigan walks out of Kinnick with a dub – the final score will be this-ish…