Michigan is 6-3, bowl eligible, and touting some mind blowing numbers on both sides of the ball. Football and the success of your head coach eventually comes down to wins and losses, and how it happens, while important, ultimately takes a back seat to how many notches you get in the win column.

With three games to go – Michigan has an opportunity to continue the trend of improvement under Rich Rodriguez. You did just read that correctly. I promise. One more time, with three games to go in the 2010 season, Michigan has an opportunity to continue the trend of improvement under head coach, Rich Rodriguez. Haven’t seen too many headlines like that over the past few years. So many times in the recent past of Michigan football, there are positive things happening that get overlooked because a negative thing is singled out and publicized.

I have no problem pulling out the fact that Rich Rodriguez is 2 for 2 when it comes to beating his record from the previous year. Sounds good to me – can’t wait to see him try and make it 3 for 3 in 2011.

To say that you saw an improved defense out there and one that made some key stops sounds ludicrous – because they gave up the most points ever allowed by a defense in the history of Michigan football! They allowed 65 freaking points! Damn. But, that was an improved defense out there. I think Courtney Avery, Ray Vinopal, Cam Gordan, Kenny Demens, and Craig Roh all had some really great moments out there on Saturday.

Now Michigan has some momentum. Momentum is an intangible thing that arguably impacts teams one way or another. But it almost feels tangible at this point – and it started mid-week last week. Mid-week – Michigan fans were all of a sudden faced with three things that had the potential to be rather negative. First, there was word of an issue with super recruit Dee Hart and that his commitment might be wavering for one reason or another.

Then there was the NCAA ruling. Michigan gets a win. RR gets a win. Shortly after, Michigan finds out that Dee Hart had worked out his complication and on track to arrive in Ann Arbor this January. Then this game against Illinois loomed – and loomed large. Michigan’s wins off the field would be out of sight and out of mind if Illinois walked into the Big House to further implicate Rich Rodriguez for not being able to get wins in conference.

I felt it. Others felt it. The worry that was prevalent going into the Penn State game seemed to flip for the Illinois game. Was it some good news during the week that gave this program some momentum? For sure. That mattered for this team going into Saturday. And it’s not like Michigan won handily – you could argue that Michigan was lucky to win this game – and they kind of were. But some things went Michigan’s way. Not all day, but Hemingway’s slant catch on 3rd and 9 in double OT made up for losing Denard and some bounces that didn’t go Michigan’s way.

As fans, we have short memories. The media is even worse. (Ir)Regardless, this past week could prove to be a huge turning point for Rich Rodriguez and the entire Michigan football program. This week might be remembered, not only for the wild display that was witnessed Saturday, but as the turning point for an entire program. You can’t say enough about the fight in this team – and I think you can say the same thing about Michigan’s head football coach, Rich Rodriguez.

[Photos from the Det. News.]

Definitely a lighter, jovial feeling from the press conference in general and definitely from Rich Rodriguez…

Rich Rodriguez…

• RR: Denard went through tests yesterday. Should be fine.
• RR: Denard — tests on Sunday “all good” he should be fine “no issues” he had (concuss symptoms…dizzy, little headache)
• RR: Denard’s expected to do everything today in practice and play next weekend.
• Rodriguez on Danny Hope/last year: “We’ve talked a little bit at conference meetings. … It’s in the past.”
• RR: Roundtree has a natural feel for the game, special player.
• RR: Defense responded well to being put in a bad postion by the offense.
• RR: I was nervous heading into the game because of the skill that Illinois had on their team.
• RR: (turnovers) is a stat that hurts us. makes our offense have to go a long way.
• RR: When there’s not much of a drop off between your 1′s and 2′s … you know you’re going to be a pretty good football team.
• RR on Teric Jones: Tore his ACL. Out for season.
• RR: Mike Martin is better, Jonas Mouton has a shoulder injury and might be a little limited. Toussaint still a question mark.
• RR on how he felt Saturday/being bowl eligible: “No question it was a sense of relief.”
• RR: the toughest transition for any player is after their eligibility ends, the opportunity to extend that with a bowl is huge.
• RR on injuries: “One of the greatest single inventions in football, facility-wise, has been the field turf.” Said 25% less knee injuries.
• RR: “Illinois is one of the most athletic teams in our league.”
• RR: We’re upfront about injuries to limit the rumors
• RR: Floyd has had surgery on ligament-ankle; Dorrestein (knee sprain) could have been used in emergency situation last week
• RR: I think our wide receivers are playing at the highest level since I’ve been here.
• RR said going into Saturday Denard Robinson’s arm has felt a “whole lot better.” Showed on his throws.
• RR said he anticipates seeing that wheel play Illinois ran for big games multiple times every week from now on.
• Kenny Demens is going to keep getting better and has played well
• Tackled ok, not great. The option plays – we didn’t get off blocks all that well.
• They have a nice scheme and good athletes.
• Haven’t talked about giving any receiver the #1 jersey – brought up regarding Roundtree
• RR has won all three games he’s been involved in that have lasted through 3 overtime periods
• Says he didn’t sleep well Saturday night as he kept replaying plays in his head – would have been much tougher with a loss
• Will take a win anyway you can get it – the win period is most important
• Neat having a defensive play win the game – the guy was open but the rush got to the QB first.
• On blitzing – you can do that when you have lock down safeties and corners. You have to pick your moments “no one wants to sit there and die a slow death”. The whole key is disguising the blitzing – have been working on it in practice.
• The 2 picks on Denard – one was a great defensive play and the second was bad fundamentals and a misread
• Jeremy Gallon had poor ball security on the kickoff. Tate’s hand was cold on his fumble.
• Tate didn’t have much of an opportunity to warm up before Denard went out.
• RR joking about not breaking any rules today in watching film.
• “we’ve got sirens going off, people screaming when we get to that 4 hour limit”
• RR asked if it feels good to be able to joke about the NCAA thing and he responds “I’m not joking” and laughing
• RR excited to get these young guys experience for when Woolfolk and JT Floyd get back healthy.
• RR saying he’s the hardest on the defensive coaches regarding their performance. Goes on to say that playing this many freshman is unprecedented.

Ryan Van Bergen…

• On mood of the team – everybody is happy and confident in coming off a win like that. Lots of motivation for next week.
• The team is motivated to improve it’s Big Ten record and work to get in the best bowl game possible.
• Had no gas left in the tank at the end of that game.
• Interesting. Michigan made the same defensive call on the second 2pt. conversion as the first one Illinois converted.
• Despite the 65 points – the D played well off of turnovers, off of short fields, etc. Made some good strides.
• Defense finally feels like they have a swagger. It’s a tight-knit group of guys.
• Lot more pressure coming off the edges because of Craig Roh. He produces better on the line as opposed to in space as a Linebacker.
• Pressure from the D line made Scheelhaase uncomfortable in the pocket.
• Defense is hoping to force more turnovers in the coming weeks. Something they need to focus on. Tackling with intention of knocking the ball out.
• The D was highly motivated on third down. Played poorly last week on third down and wanted to correct that.
• RVB saying he hit a 46 yd field goal in high school!! But saying he needs the black tee that kickers can use in high school.
• “If called upon, I would make an extra point for this team, for sure.”

Patrick Omameh…

• Great to get an emotional win. Esp. in OT
• On difference between a Denard huddle and a Tate huddle – Denard talks real fast and Tate is a little easier to hear.
• Will Campbell is a big and strong guy. He’s making progress trying to absorb and learn. Will be a contributor down the road.
• Real exciting to be going to a bowl game.

@ TomVH: Patrick Omameh sounds exactly like Notorious BIG. I want to hear him say, “It was all a dream, I used to read Word Up magazine.”

Roy Roundtree…

• Didn’t know he broke the single season record until after the game.
• Didn’t really embrace the record until yesterday when talking to his cousin.
• His cousin made him realize how many great receivers have came through Michigan.
• Difference between a Denard and Tate huddle – not really a difference. Denard does it a little faster.
• On Denard on the sideline – he was telling guys to stay focused.
• On Purdue – trys to play every game like its his last.
• Every team tries to talk smack – he worries about the next play, not the talk.
• He committed to Purdue when he was a junior. He wasn’t going to West Virginia, but became interested once RR got to Michigan.
• On his ideal weight – 190 or 185lbs. He’ll let Mike Barwis worry about his speed. He mentions being like Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway – they are big but fast.
• On Hemingway – Junior is a great football player – “you all should get to know Junior” He’s a little shy, but is a great player.
• On his speed – Embraced this off-season to get better and faster – and hopes to get faster in the future.
• He wants the #1 jersey…but won’t ask for it. He knows he has to earn it.

Darryl Stonum…

@ Cornellstone22: And here we go…..I still get alil nervous talkin at these press conferences

• Everybody was happy and emotional. It’s a really close team
• Same question on the difference between QBs in the huddle – Denard mumbles with his mouthpiece in. You have go off his signals, not what he says. haha.
• On OT games – it’s tough, momentum goes back and forth. Gotta just play your game and keep your spirits high
• On Roundtree’s size – he’s worked really hard to get bigger. Even today – he was working hard in the weight room.

Not long ago I threw up a little poll on the right sidebar – asking readers and Michigan fans to simply pick what games Michigan will win in this upcoming 2010 season. After a small sample size, I’ve posted the results below. Some obvious results – just about every person feels Michigan will beat UMass and Bowling Green, while few feel Michigan will beat Ohio State. Not to my surprise, but Michigan fans are rather optimistic about this upcoming season. Check ‘em out below – and if you haven’t already – let’s get your input over on the right!

And again, let’s not let this link fall too far under the fold. Enjoy. Was going to pull down this link as it’s quite old news – but what the hell we’ll leave it.

Win Predictions According to 118 Readers
[Updated: 201 votes]

Michigan’s 2010 squad is a unique product and nobody really knows what to expect out of this team and this coaching staff. This isn’t 2008 or 2009, right, it’s the 2010 season. You’re best off taking the little good from both previous seasons and moving on to something that will most definitely be better and more fun to watch. Hence, some renewed optimism is in order and serious hope that Michigan fields a team that fills up the win column a hair more aggressively than the previous two seasons. Massive turnarounds do happen – and it could happen with the Wolverines in this 2010 season. Should this be a massive turnaround, a complete out of this world dream season, here is how I see it playing out.

The Dream Begins…

Connecticut.
I see Michigan coming out in fine fashion as a riled up crowd enjoys the dedication game of the newly renovated Big House. Similar to last season’s opener, Michigan looks sharp in all phases of the game and it takes Connecticut a while to get anything generated on offense. My guess is that Tate takes the field as the starter and Denard is on the field in some capacity. After Michigan gets a couple scores on the board it only takes RR a couple series to put Denard behind center. It’s a glorious day at Michigan Stadium and a massive sigh of relief is felt from the Michigan fan base as a whole. Dream Record: 1-0.

@ Notre Dame.
I’ll go out on a limb and say ND picks up an opening win against Purdue. So both teams are fired up and ready to start the season 2-0. This is a close game and still has those WTF strange turnovers from both teams. Michigan goes through a second and third quarter lull that allows Notre Dame to get up by about a field goal. In the fourth quarter Michigan’s experience on the offensive line proves to be the difference in the game as Michigan keeps the ball on the ground for a couple late scores to seal the deal. Michigan ‘escapes’ with a huge win in South Bend to get the season started on a very high note. Dream Record: 2-0.

Massachusetts.
Michigan is feeling good after hurdling two tough opponents. The starters take off the first half of the first quarter before putting a number on UMass. Michigan’s starters are able to hit the sideline after the first couple possessions of the third quarter. Michigan wins in a blowout. Dream Record: 3-0.

Bowling Green.
The fear of the let down. No longer can Michigan ever overlook an opponent, especially a MAC team like Bowling Green. Bowling Green keeps it close for most of the game and loses any hope with some costly turnovers after a well-played first half. More of Tate and Denard splitting snaps with Denard doing his best to get the starting gig as it’s not settled after three games. More and more it appears as though RR will game plan and play either Tate or Denard in spots dependent upon the opponent. At any rate, the squad gives the fans plenty to cheer about on a great Saturday. Dream Record: 4-0.

@ Indiana.
Even in a dream season scenario, I still think Michigan has it’s problems with Indiana. Much like last season, Indiana’s offense has more firepower than most realize. Indiana is able to move the ball and put points on the board. Tate gets most of the snaps and Michigan is able to squeak out a nail biter – and once again, the Indiana fan base feels like their game against Michigan slipped right through their fingertips. Dream Record: 5-0.

Michigan State.
Dream season or not, Michigan State is not beating Michigan three years in a row with two coming in the Big House. It just ain’t happening. State talks a big game in the week leading up to the contest and it backfires on them. Michigan comes out fired up and lays the wood to MSU in a big way. Tate and Denard both shine as Michigan State’s offense struggles to get into any type of rhythm all day. The dream season continues. Dream Record: 6-0.

Iowa.
At this point, Michigan has garnished some national media attention for snagging their sixth win and a guaranteed bowl birth. They are ranked right around the 10 to 15 range – and a win against an established Iowa squad is sure to put Michigan in the top ten. Unfortunately, Iowa’s defense and ground game prove to be too much for Michigan to overcome. Michigan’s first loss comes on their home turf against the Hawkeyes in similar fashion to what went down a year ago at night in Iowa’s place. Dream Record: 6-1.

@ Penn State.
After suffering through the first setback of the season, this is where it’s clear that this is a different Michigan team than we’ve seen in the Rich Rodriguez era. Laying down and dying after a tough loss has been all too common over the last couple years. Not this season. This is a different team, a more experienced team, and a deeper more talented team. Michigan goes into Happy Valley as an underdog and shocks the Nittany Lion crowd in a great night game atmosphere. My guess is that Michigan puts up nearly 30 points and holds Penn State’s pedestrian offense to under 200 yards – a breakthrough game for the young Michigan D. Dream Record: 7-1.

Illinois.
With Michigan coming off its most influential win of the RR era – a rowdy Big House crowd cheers on a solid performance from Denard. Illinois puts up a great fight as there aren’t many Big Ten games anymore that aren’t flat out dogfights. This is another game the plays into the trend of Michigan pulling way in the latter stages of the second half via a defense that creates timely turnovers and an offensive line that proves it’s worth as games wear on. Michigan gets a big home win and shows that they remain focused and aren’t ready to give in to any type of letdown. Dream Record: 8-1.

@ Purdue.
Damn that Ross Ade Stadium. I don’t have great memories of Michigan playing at that place, but I do often remember Shazor the Razor’s vicious hit in the waning minutes as Purdue looked poised to at least get into field goal range and wipe away Michigan’s 16-14 lead. Michigan’s offense sets the tone in this game with a balanced attack that allows some of Michigan’s receivers to get into the action. Jeremy Gallon has a breakout performance and shows that he is a quality punt returner in this one. Michigan notches another victory as RR gets another rare Big Ten road win. Dream Record: 9-1.

Wisconsin.
For once, I think Wisconsin will live up to the hype they are receiving during the preseason. Usually, Wisky seems to beat up on their weak non-conference foes, snag a top ten ranking and then falter throughout conference play. This is a team that Michigan will struggle with because of their size and strength up front. While it will feel like one of those games that Michigan should win – and will most likely be favored in – Wisconsin escapes with a narrow victory. A disappointment absolutely, but it’s only loss #2 and the Wolverines will have a huge game the following week against the Buckeyes. Dream Record: 9-2.

@ Ohio State.
So Ohio State comes into this game with somewhat of a disappointing season as they’ve dropped a game to Miami and another unexpected Big Ten game. Michigan comes off a disappointing loss to Wisconsin, but spirits are high as they’ve had a great season. Michigan’s offense uses every inch of the field and really spreads out the Buckeye defense. In similar fashion to a year ago, the offense moves the ball well and plays a turnover free game – allowing them to put points on the board and pick up some early momentum. Pryor has a great game himself but loses a fumble in the fourth quarter that allows Michigan to get that last score they need to go up nine – a difference that Ohio State is unable to overcome. The win makes it a great, unbelievable turnaround season for the Wolverines and positions them for a BCS bowl at large bid (damn Wisconsin wins the Big Ten title). Dream Record: 10-2.

The Odds of The Dream Happening?

After the last two seasons, it’s hard to imagine Michigan firing off a ten win season and beating Ohio State on the road in late November. BUT, you know you never know. Stranger things have happened. You can bet that at this time next season – the forecasts for this team will be sky high with all the experience on D and at the skill positions. Perhaps it comes a year earlier than expected? My my wouldn’t that be nice.

I’d give this about a 12% chance of happening. And that 12% is a number that came from an intense, highly analytical mathematical breakdown. Worry not my friends, it’s a whole new season and Michigan hasn’t lost a game yet!

With a clean slate in both the win and loss column – August tends to distribute rather overwhelming optimism and pessimism among fan bases across the country. Hence, I delve into the depths of the mere possibility of an absolutely terrible 2010 season for Michigan. If all goes wrong and the team can’t seem to pull it together. If there appears to be little offensive and defensive improvement, the losses will begin to pile up quicker than a Denard scamper.

The Nightmare Begins…

Connecticut.
This game has been talked about all summer as a very difficult opener for Michigan. Facing a confident team that has experienced success in each of their last three seasons. The Nightmare starts with Michigan struggling all day to move the ball consistently and the all too familiar upside down turnover ratio going against the Wolverines. Michigan winds up keeping it close but struggles all day and loses a close one. The fan base is uneasy after a not so stellar outing in the opener and the season begins at 0-1. Nightmare Record: 0-1

@ Notre Dame.
Notre Dame opens their season against a Purdue team that could very well beat them, so both teams could be heading into their second game feeling a hair desparate for a big win. I think this season’s game in South Bend will be a typical rivalry game – neck and neck with a few WTF type turnovers from each team. Should Notre Dame beat Michigan, Brian Kelly catches Michigan off guard with some play calls that Michigan simply isn’t prepared for. Michigan, again loses a close game for the second time over two September Saturdays. Nightmare Record: 0-2

Massechussetts.
Well, the 0-2 Michigan squad gets a breather at home against a team that even Michigan’s 2008 team led by Nick Sheridan would have eased by. Nothing feels better about the season even with a royal beatdown of Umass. Michigan wins by at least three touchdowns and the Michigan faithful limp on to another week of practice. Nightmare Record: 1-2.

Bowling Green.
The thought and fear of another loss to a MAC team is there, and let’s not beat around the shrubbery, it’s a frightening thought. Michigan looks less then steller and gives up way too many yards to Bowling Green’s offense. Fortunately, Bowling Green can’t handle either Tate or Denard as they split time (as we all know will happen regardless of who starts any particular game) and put enough points up on the board to make the win look respectable on the ticker. Nightmare Record: 2-2.

@ Indiana.
Last year’s win against the Hoosiers was one of those games that pretty much sucked to watch. At that point, Michigan’s defense hadn’t truly been exposed and the team showed it’s first real signs of the meltdown that would come as the season pushed on. Michigan will walk into Bloomington hoping to add another notch to the win column, however, Indiana has different thoughts in mind. The Indiana offense again abuses Michigan’s defense and a couple costly Michigan turnovers gets Indiana enough on the board to stave off a late Michigan rally led by Forcier. Nightmare Record: 2-3.

Michigan State.
At this point, Michigan fans are ready to throw Rodriguez to the streets as the preseason optimism lingers in fans minds and all wonder if it’s possible to get this thing turned around. Afterall, it’s still early October with a lot of season left to be played. Michigan puts together a solid performance for the first time this season and takes full advantage of a couple early Michigan State blunders. Michigan gets its hopes back up after their best game of the season. Nightmare Record: 3-3.

Iowa.
Iowa enters the Big House on a roll with an unblemished record and a top ten ranking. This game will be much like last years, where Michigan competes but is never really out front and never really looks as though they are better than Iowa. While it’s a good game, Iowa’s defense proves to be too much for Michigan to ever establish anything positive on the ground – Iowa’s offense does enough to get 20+ points on the board by chewing up yardage and the clock with a solid ground game. Nightmare Record: 3-4.

@ Penn State.
Michigan comes into the game with a proclaimed renewed focus after a solid week of practice. Much like many of the games in 2009, Michigan can move the ball and the offense looks great at times, but as the game progresses Penn State seems to be the more dominant team. Michigan does not produce any big plays and it’s inexperienced kicking game misses a couple key field goals. Michigan leaves Happy Valley quite discouraged as it seems like this was just another one that slipped away in the latter stages of the game. Nightmare Record: 3-5.

Illinois.
With the season looking a lot like 2009, Michigan’s chances of getting to a bowl game seem to be less and less likely as the losses pile up. A Juice-less Illinois team strolls into Michigan Stadium hoping to get a big win as Illinois is having a terrible season. Michigan plays up to par as they did against Michigan State earlier in the season and gets another solid, turnover-free performance out of all three units. Michigan still is hopeful to get to a bowl game and finish the season on a high note. Nightmare Record: 4-5.

@ Purdue.
What the hell is it about Ross Ade Stadium – because over the years Michigan has really struggled to come out of there with wins. Just this week, the Big Ten Network was playing the 2000 game, where a Drew Henson / David Terrell / Anthony Thomas led offense blew a 28-10 lead against the Drew Brees led Boilermakers. Much of the same to be expected here, a high scoring affair that leaves Michigan with a sour taste and rotten bus ride back to Ann Arbor. Some Purdue player is sure to have a career defining game. Michigan goes down. Nightmare Record: 4-6.

Wisconsin.
Wisconsin comes in not living up to the preseason top fifteen type expectations everybody set in August. That being said, Wisconsin takes advantage of some sloppy quarterback play from Michigan as a frustrated Rodriguez shuffles both Denard and Tate in and out of the game – hoping one of them will perform. Michigan loses a stinker and a low scoring game on a dreary November day. Bowl hopes again – dashed. Nightmare Record: 4-7.

@ University of Ohio State.
Well, once again Michigan is faced with a “well if we beat Ohio State down in Columbus it will almost make up for everything that went wrong all season.” As nice as that sounds – it ain’t happening. Ohio State is too solid in all three phases of the game and the game is almost a direct repeat of 2009. Michigan moves the ball, but doesn’t have enough firepower to look like the better team on the field or the scoreboard. Nightmare Record: 4-8.

The Odds of the Nightmare Happening?

There is about a 8% chance the season plays out this way. While I won’t totally discount it, and using history as a guide, Michigan should at the very least be on par with last season and most likely show marked improvement. BUT, you never know, as we thought the seasons and product on the field were mere impossibilities before the 2008 and 2009 seasons actually happened.

Worry not my friends. ANYTHING can happen – but I don’t foresee the Nightmare becoming part of our reality in the near future.

How can Rich Rodriguez and this team rebound?
RR is facing some real adversity, again. A great September bought him some additional time and put him in good graces with some that were calling for his head. Personally, I am willing to give RR time and won’t put 100% of the blame on him. The inexperience factor is significant, this team is so freakin’ young and it’s very well documented. I think saying that RR is on the hot seat is a knee jerk reaction that isn’t quite justified at this point. If this team is in a similar situation one year from now, I will take a different stance on the matter.

So, three games left. Four scenarios.

1. Final Record: 8-4 – Michigan rebounds with a win against a bad Purdue team that plays better than their record at times (see Ohio State game). Somehow Wisconsin plays its worst game of the year and Michigan steals one. Then the gods of Michigan football come out of the woodwork against Ohio State.
   Odds of happening? 5%
2. Final Record: 7-5 – Michigan beats Purdue this week in what will probably be an ugly game for both teams. Loses at Wisconsin because getting a road win this season just ain’t gonna happen. And the the almighty gods of Michigan football show up and roll into the Big House against Ohio State.
   Odds of happening? 20%
3. Final Record: 6-6 – Michigan beats Purdue because they suck, and Michigan sucks, but Purdue sucks more. Michigan has no interest in winning a road game this year, so Wisconsin is obviously a loss. The following week, Ohio State shows that they are clearly the dominant team and soundly beats Michigan by three touchdowns.
   Odds of happening? 60%
4. Final Record: 5-7 – Michigan shows no resemblance of the team they were back in September. This would mean the team goes 1-7 in their final 8 games – and that’s counting the Delaware State game as what it wasn’t – an actual game. The world of maize and blue is completely engulfed in the early season success of the men’s basketball team and wants nothing to do with Rich Rodriguez.
   Odds of happening: 25%