Lot of emotions and anger came out of watching Michigan fall to Michigan State in OT. A frustrating day of where the offense just couldn’t get into any kind of rhythm. The defense consistently put Michigan State in third and long situations but couldn’t get off the field. A remarkable comeback by possibly my favorite UM player to watch in recent history in Tate Forcier. The kid is simply great when it’s crunch time and his back is against the wall. To go 92 yards in a driving rain with no timeouts after his offense struggled all day is a story we would have heard about for years to come should Michigan have pulled out that game in OT. In the end, Michigan got outplayed badly by State, who appeared to have a gameplan that worked and UM had a tough time adjusting.

Should RR Have Abandoned the Run?
It appears as though the loss of David Molk is more significant of an injury than anyone initially thought. Michigan got pushed around up front and lost the battle. Minor and Brown simply had no where to go, no room to run. A game plan is a game plan and you try and get your offense into a rhythm when they haven’t had a chance to get on the field much. I’m not a big time of possession guy, but it gets to a point where the offense simply doesn’t get a shot. Michigan had the ball for 7:20 in the first half compared to MSU having it for 22:40. That’s a HUGE difference and Michigan was doubled up on time of possession in the game.

All that being said, I don’t blame Rich Rodriguez for not abandoning the run sooner than the fourth quarter. I’ve heard it over and over, MSU’s glaring weakness was there secondary and RR should have attempted to exploit that from the get-go. You play to your opponent’s weakness, but you don’t change your identity to do so. If Stonum doesn’t fumble that catch and run to MSU’s 10 yard line, Michigan may have been able to cut that lead to 7 with about 10 minutes to go in the final quarter.

Tate In the Rain / Det. News

Tate Forcier is Mad Clutch
Was there much doubt when Tate had the ball 92 yards away, 2 minutes to go with no timeouts? Well yea, but probably not in his mind. He continues to prove that he’s got some serious poise, moxy, it, whatever you want to call it that all great quarterbacks possess. Shit is this guy exciting and fun to watch. It’s chaotic, madness, and successful. I love watching the kid play and think he’s got some very bright days ahead of him at Michigan. Look at the pic – in a driving rain with poor snaps – Tate gets it done on that last drive.

Why Can’t the Defense Get Off the Field?
Frustrating is a light term for how I felt as I watched a three man front rush Kirk Cousins on 3rd and 15 – Cousins gets all day to decide whether he feels like running for the first or throwing underneath a zone for the first down. Time and time again this happened. FRUSTRATING. I can’t imagine how frustrating Greg Robinson was watching this happen right in front of him.

It’s really becoming clear that Michigan’s linebacker play is NOT good. It’s G Damn terrible. Obi Ezeh makes a lot of tackles against a power running game, but in other situations he is SLOW, very slow. Did you see him try to attempt to catch cousins on one, or any, of his long third down scrambles? I don’t know what has happened with Jonas Mouton, I expected better and quicker play from him this season as well.

All in all, the defense is young and inexperienced. Brandon Graham had a huge, NFL caliber day. Donovan Warren did his job. It was the killer third down conversions that enabled Michigan State’s offense to stay on the field. I think G. Robinson will do well at Michigan, he just needs some time and some additional talent to work with.

What’s It All Mean?
Michigan is young and probably a bit ahead of schedule. Most analysts and fans expected Tate Forcier to play like a freshman, not like a veteran that can bring his team back when his back is against the wall in yea – about every game. As negative as the game was in several facets, Michigan found a way to cut the lead and eventually tie up the ball game. Michigan’s inexperience and young talent is going to make for some exciting games this year.

As the week progresses, we’ll get more into the upcoming Iowa game, but I think this Michigan team views this loss as a learning experience and ultimately an opportunity. Momentum will not be lost, in fact gained. A win at Iowa would be huge – and it would put Michigan right back in the hunt for the Big Ten Championship.

I’ve digested various predictions throughout the week and have heard some interesting thoughts. Michigan hopped on their buses yesterday and drove over to Lansing for today’s game with the Michigan State Spartans. The 1-3 Michigan State Spartans. Let’s be honest, a few plays go the other way for both teams and State could be 3-1 and Michigan could be 2-2. BUT, ifs don’t count and reality is reality. Michigan rolls into this game at 4-0 and yea, 1-3 for MSU.

Michigan is 4-0 because they have talent on the field that makes plays – example) Tate Forcier throws a TD pass to Martavious Odoms with the game on the line against Indiana – a win is had by the Wolverines.

Michigan State is 1-3 because they haven’t made the plays – example) Kirk Cousins overthrows a for sure TD pass at Notre Dame for the win – then throws a bad interception when the game was on the line against Notre Dame – a loss is handed to the Spartans.

Today’s game will be determined by three factors:

1. It’s a Rivalry and it’s in East Lansing: Granted, a bit of a lopsided one as Michigan leads the overall series 67-29-5. Sparty ended a five-game Michigan winning streak last year – taking the game in AA 35-21. The home team has one 12 of the last 17 games. Score a slight advantage for the Spartans here…
2. The Weather: Cloudy with a 60 percent chance of showers toward the end of the game, temperatures between 49-52 degrees, winds at 13-15 mph. This obviously plays to Michigan’s advantage as their running game has been significantly stronger than that of the Sparty. Here is the Futurecast from Weather.com in a few hours…
   

   Today's Weather

3. Forcier’s Health: Michigan’s offense can move the ball with ease against a terrible MSU defense if Forcier is in the ball game. He brings a balanced attack that can lean run and pick away at the passing game with Forcier’s accuracy and ability to throw on the run. So this will be something that both teams will be watching as the game gets underway. Definite Michigan advantage if Forcier appears as though his shoulder is good to go.

Let’s take a look at some of the opinions and predictions from around the web this week…

Fox Sports – Aram Tolegian

Let’s be honest, Michigan’s win over Notre Dame (its only claim to fame this season) looks worse every week. The Irish are clearly nothing special. Yes, it was a great game. And because of that, it’s the only thing in people’s minds when they think of the ’09 Wolverines. Well, that’s a problem in perception, because, while better, Michigan isn’t “back”. It’s just simply ranked higher because its record forced the pollsters hands. Michigan State is a team that’s getting better week after week. If you compare their games against ND, Michigan State actually grades better because the Spartans were on the road, blew many opportunities and didn’t have the zebras clearly on their side as Michigan did when it hosted Notre Dame in Week 2. Michigan’s close call at home last week against Indiana is an ominous sign. Michigan State hands big brother its first loss on Saturday.

Collegefootballnews.com

Michigan State will not only end Michigan’s hot start, but it’ll get its second win in the rivalry in the last two years. Forcier always has a magical trick or two up his sleeve, but he’ll have to get the passing game going after the Wolverine defense allows too many early big plays to the dangerous Spartan receivers. Michigan will make a tremendous comeback and have a chance late to pull out the win, but won’t come through. CFN Prediction: Michigan State 34 … Michigan 31

StuartMandel

Upset Special: The remarkable resurrection of the Wolverines’ offense, led by freshman QB Tate Forcier, has overshadowed the fact that Michigan’s defense leaves a lot to be desired, as last week’s near-miss against Indiana showed. QB Kirk Cousins and the Spartans are desperate for a victory and more than capable of racking up yards.

THE Prediction

When Michigan has the ball
When Tate Forcier didn’t show up on the weekly Injury Report, Michigan fans breathed a little sigh of relief. Not that I don’t think it’d be interesting, and potentially sweet, to watch Denard Robinson take snaps for a whole game – but having Forcier in there stabilizes the offensive attack. Michigan is going to lean run but maintain a balanced attack. I think Rich Rod is going to try and get his squad in short yard second down situations. In a hostile environment, especially if the weather is a factor, 2nd and 3rd and long situations could be consistent drive killers. I know MSU’s D has been terrible up to this point, but because it’s a rivalry game – I won’t necessarily say Michigan’s O can have a field day.

Three offensive players I look to have a big impact:

• Kevin Koger – This guy is just too talented to not get him the ball. I think you’ll see Koger catch some short passes out in the flat – similar to his catch in the ND game.
• Darryl Stonum – He had a big impact last week in the kicking game against IU – I expect to see Stonum carry over that momentum into this game against the Spartans.
• Brandon Minor – I know Carlos Brown has been the playmaker, but Minor has the ability to break tackles and bust through the line a bit quicker than Brown. See the Notre Dame game, when Minor is in the ballgame holes seem to open up from him.

When Michigan’s on Defense
Michigan State’s strength is aligned with Michigan’s biggest weakness – need I say? The secondary is not well, not good, thank God for Donovan Warren. MSU has playmakers on the outside in Dell, Cunningham and White. It will be critical that Michigan pressures Kirk Cousins in the pocket. If he has all day back there, MSU is going to put some serious points on the board. Let’s hope the dudes on D can force some turnovers as well – they have been spending an awful lot of time on the field lately.

Three defensive players I look to have a big impact:

• Brandon Graham – GET A SACK ALREADY! Can you believe ol’ boy doesn’t have a sack yet? His presence on the field has no doubt been very effective, but he hasn’t been able to get that stat sheet rollin’ yet. I think BG today gets that going and he has a couple sacks and possibly a BG forced fumble.
• Stevie Brown – Stevie has played relatively well this year so far and I look for that to continue. I think GERG will bring him off the edge a few times and he’ll get to Kirk Cousins. His speed is showing in his new linebacker role.
• Donovan Warren – He’s consistent. He makes plays and takes care of one-half of the field. Granted, this will put added pressure on JT Floyd starting at the other corner, but D. Warren is having his best year as a Wolverine and I look for that to continue today.

THE FINAL SCORE
All week I’ve seen every prediction put both teams scoring 30+ points and why not? Both teams have been scoring a lot of points and both defenses have looked like BAD. I like to be different, I’m trying to think of what may happen to keep this game’s point total lower. The weather? Could the rain speed the clock up, turn the ball over and keep teams out of the end zone? I don’t know. I think Michigan’s offense is consistent all day and puts up 34 points. Michigan’s D will struggle, but will effectively keep Sparty out of the endzone. Going against the grain – I’m saying Michigan beats Michigan State 34 – 23.

After DeAndra Cobb busted out for his second long touchdown run of the game to put Michigan State 17 points ahead of Michigan midway through the fourth quarter, the Spartans’ defense was dancing on the sidelines, confident that their first victory in Ann Arbor since 1990 was just around the
corner.

Instead, the Spartans fell victim to arguably the greatest comeback in the history of Michigan Stadium, as Michigan scored 17 points in the final 6:27 to force overtime before overcoming Michigan State 45-37 in three overtimes.

Senior wide receiver Braylon Edwards keyed the comeback, catching fourth-quarter touchdown passes of 36 and 21 yards and catching a 24-yard touchdown on the second play of the third overtime to give the Wolverines (8-1, 6-0) the lead for good. Edwards ended up catching 11 balls for 189 yards, providing most of Chad Henne’s 273 passing yards.

Before that though, it looked as if the Spartans (4-4, 3-2) were going to pull the upset. Michigan State riddled a previously stout Michigan defense for 535 yards, including 368 on the ground. Most of those yards came on draw plays to Cobb, who ran for 205 yards on 22 carries. Cobb started off the scoring with a 72-yard touchdown run off a draw play on Michigan State’s first drive and added a 64-yarder for a score to put the Spartans up 27-10 with 8:43 left in regulation.

The Spartans extended a 17-10 halftime lead to 27-10 early in the fourth despite the loss of quarterback Drew Stanton, who separated his shoulder when Michigan defensive end LaMarr Woodley slammed him into the turf late in the second quarter. Before that, Stanton was dicing up the Wolverines, running for 80 yards and a touchdown and throwing for 95 yards.

After Cobb’s fourth-quarter touchdown, the Wolverines drove 86 yards to the Michigan State 7 thanks to several big runs by Michael Hart, who ran for over 200 yards for the third straight game in netting 224 yards on 35 carries and a first-quarter touchdown. Garrett Rivas kicked a 24-yard field goal with 6:27 left to make the score 27-13 but fullback Brian Thompson recovered Michigan’s ensuing onside kick to keep hope alive.

Edwards scored his first touchdown 15 seconds later, jumping over Spartan cornerback Jaren Hayes to suddenly bring Michigan within 27-20 with 6:12 left. He pulled the trick again at the 2:59 mark on the 21-yard touchdown, while Michigan State missed a field goal at the end of regulation to win the game.

The teams exchanged field goals in the first overtime and touchdowns in the second, with Jason Teague running in from 3 yards out for MSU and Jason Avant catching a tip-toe 5-yard touchdown pass for Michigan. After Edwards’ third touchdown and an ensuing 2-point conversion pass to tight end Tim Massaquoi. MSU went four and out on the next possession, as the Wolverines tortured the Spartans yet again.

Generally speaking, the spread offense makes it hard for opposing teams to prepare by forcing them to have to defend everything – no cheating against the spread. The Michigan Wolverine spread offense attack will stretche defenses horizontally – effectively widening the field for the offense, forcing the defense to defend more space, and making it easier on the quarterback to read the defense. The defense naturally has to declare what they are doing because they spread out and get out of the box – also creating some undesirable mismatches for the defense. A well-oiled spread attack is very dangerous and can be a nightmare to defend, especially when the QB can do more than just.

So if the spread offense is so hard to defend, why doesn’t everybody run it? Oh right, there are some drawbacks that are worthy of mentioning. The QB is going to inevitably take some physical pounding and unless he has great natural passing ability – he may not get enough dedicated time in practice to polish passing skills. So it is a must to have multiple capable quarterbacks in case your starter gets dinged up and can’t play. In considering the 2010 recruiting class, Michigan will have at least 4 quarterbacks that have the athletic ability that fits into the infrastructure of the offense.

Versions of the spread offense around the Big 10
Pure zone read option teams: Michigan, Illinois, Penn State, Indiana
Run first spread: Northwestern
Pass happy dink and dunk spread: Purdue, Minnesota
Pro-style teams that adapt to the spread based on personnel: OSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, MSU

Here is a video of Rich Rod talking through the different options that the scheme allows for – enabling the quarterback to have as many as 4 different possible options and decisions to make on any given play. The zone read is relatively simple- the QB reads the end and makes a decision to hand-off or keep the ball if the end bites on the back. In any given option play, there are effectively four possible decisions or options that the QB chooses from in a split second: inside run, outside pitch, QB keep or throwing some type of bubble screen. Check out the vid to hear Rich Rod go through some of the options while he had Pat White at West Virginia.

Here are some numbers that Rich Rod’s spread offense piled up at West Virginia. Let’s hope we see similar results in the near future in the Big House – how about we start on let’s say…September 5th, 2009.

West Virginia ’07: #3 in rush offense 297.23 ypg, #1 in rush ypc 6.15 ypc, #9 scoring offense 39.6 ppg
West Virginia ’06: #2 in rush offense 303.00 ypg, #1 in rush ypc 6.68 ypc, #3 scoring offense 38.8 ppg
West Virginia ’05: #4 in rush offense 272.42 ypg, #11 in rush ypc 5.23 ypc, #31 scoring offense 32.1 ppg
West Virginia ’04: #7 in rush offense 252.83 ypg, #10 in rush ypc 5.14 ypc, #29 scoring offense 30.1 ppg

Bottom line: when the system is working . NOBODY will want to play Michigan. And I’ve said it before, I want the Big House to be a place where teams dread coming to. It’s time to get some serious winning streaks started in the big house….