Michigan slides into Iowa City with a November record that Lloyd Carr was able to achieve only twice from ’98 through ’07.  Michigan is 7-1 and in position to make it a November to remember for Michigan fans.  A good start would be avoiding a third straight loss to the Hawkeyes, something that has never happened before.

Iowa, who has yet to lose a game at home, has all kinds of troublesome developments that are festering about – including being on the wrong side of a 22-21 game against league-worst Minnesota.  Now, Minnesota is certainly awful, but that game goes to show the struggles just about any B1G team can have when away from their home spot.

I have a similar, yet slightly different, feeling going into this game as I did heading into East Lansing.  Bottom line, it’s going to be a tough go in Iowa City.  I hear this morning that the weather forecast is calling for up to 40 mph wind gusts – which brings back awful, awful memories from October 15th, which Michigan stubbed it’s toe at Michigan State. 

The Magnitude of Tomorrow

Huge.  Think about it. Tomorrow is one of those games that measures what kind of Michigan team we are dealing with.  A win sets the tone for November and really gets this team, this set of seniors over a significant hump.

Think about this.  For these seniors, what is the biggest road win?  They don’t have one.  At Notre Dame last year?  You could have counted that last season, but not this year.  At Northwestern?  Please.  The comeback was nice after being down ten at half, but Northwestern is flimsy this season.  So this game is big for the mental state of this team.

Continuing the thought – Michigan needs to show they can go into a road environment and dictate play from the jump.  Iowa has serious offensive potential between running back Marcus Coker, wideout McNutt, and quarterback James Vandenberg.  Can Michigan’s defense stay strong and keep Iowa under 20 points?  They need to.

Iowa: 8 Games In

Prediction

Michigan needs to set the tone early – and maintain it.  Tough to say Michigan needs to come out and get the first score and all will be fine and swell – see Michigan State loss.

Tomorrow brings answers to the critical questions…

How does Michigan’s defensive front hold up stopping Marcus Coker?
With the potential wind, can Michigan find enough success in the running game to control the game at large?
Can Denard/Devin get through the game without any episodes of turnover-give-a-way-time?
Can Michigan’s front seven get to Vandenberg when he’s surveying the field on a McNutt hunt?

Score?

Well, the statistically driven Yards, Points, and Predictions post spat out a score of Michigan 36, Iowa 16.  So I’m going to play off that score.  Here we go:

Michigan 36
-3 being on the road
-1 40 mph wind gusts
-1 Recent struggles vs. Iowa

Michigan 31

Iowa 16
+3 being at home
+2 Minnesota loss redemption
+2 McNutt might abuse Michigan
+1 One more just feels right

Iowa 24

Michigan 31 Iowa 24

Injury report and game details are on your right. Too many defensive players getting hurt. And FYI – I don’t list the guys that are out for the season – that being Jared Van Slyke and Troy Woolforker, more commonly know as Twoolf. To me, its seems as though Michigan gets a chance to catch it’s breath over the course of the next few weeks – or at least the next couple. At Indiana is absolutely not a gimme game by any means. The Denard-mania has been going full speed this week – and I have to admit, I’ve been eating it up. Michigan fans haven’t eaten in a while, and when you’re starvin’ like a mugg, you eat up when there’s some eats to be had.

The enormity and feel to the first two weekends for Michigan has been energy-intensive to say the least. UConn and Notre Dame were major challenges for this Michigan team and coaching staff given the mainstream media microscope placed on the entire program. And it seems as though Michigan can’t just win and have the win dominate headlines. There’s always a side story, whether it’s Tate not getting snaps and being second on the QB depth chart, or it’s a national obsession with one of the most likable players in recent college football history. Michigan now enters into a little stretch where they will actually be favored in a few games. UMass presents the feeling of “should be a blowout but James Madison and App State once upon a time did actually happen”. So if the first quarter is coming to a close and Michigan isn’t entirely dominant in all phases of the game – mild panic may set in and extreme paranoia sets in.

Because Michigan should dominate each offensive and defensive matchup – that particular breakdown got knifed this week. I want to see a handful of things happen this week…

On Offense…

• Denard get his yards, break a couple big ones (throwing or passing), and get out of the game by late second quarter or after the first possession of the third quarter.
• Tate and Devin both get a number of possessions.
• Somebody, anybody, in the backfield have a good day and show playmaking ability. My guess is that RR wants to get the backs involved and take on the bulk of the rushes.
• A big play in the return game – punt or kick.
• More involvement of the tight ends – Koger and Webb haven’t seen the ball much in the first two games.
• TDs’, but if forced to kick a field goal – I’d like to see it go through the uprights this time.

On Defense…

• Absolute domination.
• No deep balls of any kind get beyond the safeties.
• Lots of guys play – a lead should get guys like Cullen Christian and Courtney Avery some good game experience as the lack of depth might offer them playing time later in the season.
• Turnovers, more than one.
• Significant pressure from the front 3, or 4.
• Sacks.
• Negative yardage plays due to chaos created in the backfield.

Weather Forecast

Hoping for a clean game from the skies. Might not work out that way.

What Riles and Nettles Thy Minds

I don’t know. Injuries mostly. It’d be great if Michigan could play a lot of guys this week and not have anyone get hurt. Should UMass have any measure of success on offense – I’ll worry because Michigan State and Iowa offensively >>> Umass.

If Michigan Wins – this is how it’s goin’ down…

Ha. If. If Michigan wins. Damn The Horror, or else if wouldn’t exist for a game of this nature. The Horror did happen, so it does. Michigan should run all over a UMass defensive line that had a total of zero collective starts before this season. I expect Michigan to gash UMass for big gains and average nearly ten yards per play throughout the course of the game, definitely the first half. UMass does have a decent tandem of running backs – one John Griffen who rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2009 while playing for Northeastern. Interesting note – both Hofstra and Northeastern dropped their football programs, and UMass collected the change so to speak. This should be a lopsided game, one that resembles last year’s Delaware State win more so than this years Connecticut win. I’m thinking…

In the tables below…St = Starts and App = Game Appearances.

QB

The Sitch: This is the magical unit in the Rodriguez spread style offense, but if you ask me, that’s an overused statement because it holds true in every offense. As the opener approaches, it’s becoming apparent that the coaching staff is feeling comfortable with the play of Denard, Tate and Devin. RR saying all three may play and that Devin will not be redshirting as he is mature enough both physically and mentally.

When I analyze these three guys, especially Tate and Denard, I have a hard time making judgments on what happens during spring and fall practice as opposed to what I’ve seen in games. The spring game is just too different from a game for me to fully put stock in the hype around Denard. No question, he needs to be on the field in some capacity. If you didn’t know, he’s kinda fast. If Denard is the starter and if he indeed does take the majority of the snaps, it’s because of the followings: he has a better grasp of the playbook, his accuracy / confidence throwing the ball is much better / higher, and his decision making is waaay improved as a product of knowing the playbook and having more confidence.

I live near Cincinnati, so I answer to a bunch of wannabe truck driver buckeye fans regarding why Denard is starting over Tate, Tate is transferring because it’s what they do in that family, etc. It doesn’t really matter, at all, who takes the first snap and first couple series against UConn. I agree with Angelique Chengelis that the Michigan fan base and college football world has made way too much of who gets the start.

What to Expect: Denard Robinson will be taking the first snaps against UConn – put that one in the bank. My best guess, after seeing all the interviews, press conferences, spring game, beanie bowl highlights, etc. is that Denard will get a 2-5 series leash before you will see Tate get in the ball game. From that point it’s a feel thing for Rich Rod – so whichever guy looks most promising up against UConn’s defense is the guy that is going to stay in the game. Expect to see Devin in the ball game if Michigan creates some separation on the scoreboard, but don’t put any coin on him seeing the field if this game is remotely close. RR will have to side with the guys that have more experience even if Devin is playing up to Tate and Denard’s level.

Running Back

The Sitch: Without a sure starter coming back, there’s a bit of speculation as to who is going to stand out and get the bulk of the carries when it counts. Both guys with some game experience will most likely get the first cracks at it, Mike Shaw and Vincent Smith. Smith is going to be used more between the tackles and Shaw on the outside. Smith has the shiftiness and some of that knack that Mike Hart had to always get a few more yards than you think he will. Shaw has really not lived up to his potential yet. He’s a guy with great speed, but lacks consistency and doesn’t have much power whatsoever.

The guy that a lot of people are ready to see is Mike Cox. Mike is a guy that has had good moments in clean up duty and is regarded as the best overall athlete of the group. Should Mike prove to be a gamer, he could add some real depth to this group and barring injuries, give RR a solid three to four guys to feel comfortable with in the backfield.

What to Expect: Vincent Smith is your starter against UConn, but Mike Shaw, Mike Cox and Stephen Hopkins are all very likely to see some carries. I look for Vincent Smith to emerge as the most consistent back on read option runs because of his ability to squirt through the big guys up front. Smith had no problem snagging 4 to 7 yards on first down for most of his touches against Ohio State last year – so more of the same is to be expected this season. Getting a 1,000 yard rusher out of this group would be great, but I don’t see it happening.

Wide Receiver

The Sitch: This is no doubt a talented group with a ton of game experience. One surprise that came out of camp was RR sticking Martavious Odoms on the outside. A move warranted by Odoms’ knowledge of the system and his physical nature. Stonum has had an outstanding fall camp and is primed for a breakout season (with a new vision thanks to some contacts).

Hemingway is a guy that has looked great at times, but can’t seem to stay healthy. It’s hard to expect a lot of him simply because he hasn’t really proven himself after two seasons being a starter going into the opener. I think he has the potential to be a solid contributor.

What to Expect: Stonum is going to have a big season on the outside as Michigan’s only real deep threat, not to mention his proven ability to return kickoffs. If Odoms can stay healthy, he’ll be a mainstay on the edge as his ability to block is critical for several plays going to the slot. If any of the young guys need to step up, expect Je’Ron Stokes and true freshman Jeremy Jackson to get their shot.

Slot Receiver

The Sitch: Roy Roundtree was straight up a receiving beast over the last four games in ’09. Roundtree is fully expected to top the group when it comes to both leadership and production. He’s a dude that is quickly becoming a favorite among both the local media and fans. Kelvin Grady looks positioned to also see more time on the field this season over last, but he is another guy that has yet to truly prove himself in a game situation. Perhaps, with a year under his belt of being fully committed to football he will be a better player and performer.

I think it’s fair to assume that Terrance Robinson might have a slight edge on Jeremy Gallon, but both guys have been highly touted and have a lot of talent. It will be interesting to see if one of these guys emerges and takes playing time away from Grady.

What to Expect: Homeboy Roundtree is going to have a great season. He’s shown great body control, ball control and route running ability and is a self-proclaimed hard worker and has said several times that he’s looking to play with that “Hard Edge”. Look for Grady to get his shot, with T. Rob and Gallon on his heels all season.

Tight End

The Sitch: As long as Koger and Webb stay healthy, this will be a strength for the Michigan offense. Koger has shown some flashes of brilliance, but has also been inconsistent. Assuming he’s matured as he is another guy that’s been in the system for three years now, Koger is a high-potential guy. While the tight ends aren’t used in the spread as much as in the pro-style offense, RR has said several times that tight ends are generally used in about 70% of plays. Martell Webb is a solid backup that brings some experience to the table and will see the field a lot this fall.

What to Expect: Kevin Koger to have a fantastic year, but he still won’t see more than two or three balls thrown his way per game. Michigan has so much talent on the outside and in the slot, not to mention the guys behind center, that the tight ends may get neglected a bit. Of course, the opposite may ring true, Koger and Webb might get more open if the slots and wide receivers are garnishing more attention from opposing defenses because of their success. Tight end is always a tough position to forecast from a reception productivity standpoint. Definitely a position of strength for Michigan this season.

Offensive Line

The Sitch: Finally, Michigan has an experienced offensive line under Rich Rodriguez. A lot of these guys have been in the program all three years and now have a boatload of game experience. Steve Schilling alone has started in 36 games out of 37 in his career at Michigan. David Molk might be the most important guy on this entire offense. Things really began to fall apart in 2009 after Molk went down once and then again in the Penn State game. You’ll find many people that feel Molk’s injury combined with Forcier’s shoulder injury were the difference of a few games last seasons.

You’ve got young guys like Taylor Lewan pushing older fellas like Perry Dorrestein and Mark Huyge. Patrick Omameh has looked great and performed relatively well when his number was called last season. The group as a whole is much bigger and stronger – they have been Barwis-ized so they have put on the muscle mass while maintaining their agility.

What to Expect: The O line will probably be Michigan’s deepest unit and it should be the key to an extremely productive offense. RR will be able to shuffle fresh legs in and out through the course of a game and should someone go down – there’s a quality, experienced back up that can step without the offense missing a beat. The collective starts of the entire unit from 2009 adds up to 37 – the experience gained, not to mention the strength and bulk gained in the offseason, all amounts to a group of guys that have had opportunities to grow and gel as a cohesive unit.

3-9. Man was that bad. I mean I was excited walking in to that Utah game. I’m thinking that a new offense, talent moved around to fit that pretty new offense – this could be good. The crowd was excited. You could feel change was in the air. Then, the skills, or lack thereof, of a one Nick Sheridan was put on display. Tossing the rock and just hoping that someone caught it. It was ugly. Very ugly.

Needless to rehash or say to any degree, the rest of the season was just a tire fire. Turnovers, blown opportunities, bad tackling, no defense, etc.

So here we are broaching the 2009 season. The hopes and expectations are about where I think they should be. 7-8 wins, bowl game, and I think most people will accept that and move on with higher expectations for the following year. The schedule sets up nicely for a decent start. I think Notre Dame may be a touch overrated, but we’ll see how that one plays out. That will be a challenge.

Stock up or stock down? You always here the analysts playing that little game. The stock tanked, hard. Worth nothing. With some improved QB play, you know, someone that is better than an average high school QB, UM’s stock is up – and it may rise a bit higher than most people think if a couple early wins give these boys a bit of swagger and confidence.