I’m cool. Real cool. It’s all good. Seriously.
A fury of circumstances has turned me against writing anything for about an entire week. Most of all, I just needed a mental break from thinking about this football program and how this once promising season turned to dog poo. It sucks to be on the bottom of the Big 11. It sucks even worse to lose to rivals again. But it’s cool, really. This is something many elite programs have experienced, because they all go through transitions and most take time. Faster would be nicer, but it will happen.

Thoughts on the Ohio State game
I watched this game at a bar near Dayton, OH and I can tell you that I was one of two Michigan fans out of at least 100 people, and they were worried as Michigan found ways to move the ball. Unfortunately, Forcier found ways to make me drink more beer and not really threaten the OSU lead as the game was winding down. Also, most OSU fans were on my side relative to the hideousness of those throwback uniforms.

Tate had several nice plays throughout this game. The offense played relatively well throughout, and Vincent Smith showed signs of what a starter next year should look like. Roy Roundtree again showed that he deserves to be a starter next year along with Tay Odoms and Darryl Stonum. It was disappointing to see Brandon Minor unable to play in his final home game. Carlos Brown, or not Carlos Brown, na – still can’t break a damn tackle. Brandon Graham = freak, unreal dude. I hope BG is a top draft pick and becomes the next Lamarr Woodley.

About the whole fire Rich Rod thing.
At this point, we can all say that Rich Rodriguez has underachieved after two years as Michigan’s head coach. You cannot be pleased with the alleged NCAA allegations either. You can also scrape the news off of the Detroit Free Press, national media, Michael Wilbon, you name it; and think that Michigan needs to cut their losses with RR and bring in the next Michigan Man.

Or, you could take emotion out of it, spend the time to understand the dynamics of this roster in it’s current state, remember how bad you wanted a change after 2007, continue to remember how bad you wanted a change after 2007, and realize that year 2 was an improvement over year 1. Not a huge improvement, but 5 > 3. The offense improved by leaps and bounds, and somehow was the #1 scoring offense in the Big 11. Any team should be able to win a ball game scoring 36, see Purdue.

I see a coach that is resilient and not beaten down. As RR tells the media, they don’t know what goes on in that locker room, film room, weight room, etc. RR and his staff have created an environment where the players are very close to one another and believe in the system put in place. I’ve been pleased with RR’s demeanor in post-game press conferences, he sticks to his guns and doesn’t let ill-placed questions get the best of him. He often speaks of the bigger picture, the process, that he and his staff put their heart and soul in to – and it’s happening, just not as fast as an irrational fan wants it to.

Will Michigan be a better team in 2010?
Yes. Thank you for asking.

Why will Michigan be better offensively?
A starting quarterback is coming back, yay! And it’s a guy that is actually competent at times, yay! Tate should improve with an entire offseason to pick up where he left off after the Ohio State game. In general, Tate finished the season strong starting with the Purdue game. He will improve as he spends time adding some padding to that frame and slowing the game down in his head. Let’s just hope he’s got the work ethic to make all of that happen.

QB’s aside, the majority of the offense is back – and the unit should once again improve with another year under its belt. The year 1 to year 2 jump is always big, but so is the year 2 to 3 jump.

5 offensive players with 2010 expectations.

1. Vincent Smith
   Played lights out against Wisconsin and Ohio State, and shows the ability to break tackles and make something out of nothing. Oh yea, he can catch too.
2. Roy Roundtree
   Played lights out since the Purdue game. He’s got sure hands and great acceleration – although his breakaway speed could be improved, see Illinois game.
3. Denard Robinson / Tate Forcier
   Tate will start. Denard will play QB and find his way into other formations as a back or receiver, a la Percy Harvin. I know RR is keeping him at QB, but he’ll see time on field in other ways. Tate is a natural, it seems as though he needs to mature a bit and stay more focused during games. A lot will be expected from Tate.
4. Darryl Stonum
   Stonum really created a name for himself returning kicks this year, so that will naturally be the talk on his behalf leading into the season. Michigan needs a deep threat, and Stonum needs to be that guy. Would like to see him get a little more established as a key part of the offense.
5. David Molk
   Many believe this was Michigan’s most impactful injury of 2009, and it may have been. Once Molk was out, Michigan was out. Regardless, his rehab will be a major story and Michigan will need him back in the starting line up.

Why will Michigan be better defensively?
Greg Robinson will be here. That means this defense doesn’t have to start over with a new defensive coordinator, first time this has happened in four years. This defense was not good, and simply having some consistency from a coaching standpoint gives the case for improvement credibility. Brandon Graham is gone, and was nothing short of amazing in his senior season. He was a game-changing beast, it’s too bad that he wasn’t complimented by a couple more playmakers in the back seven. The general feel is that Donovan Warren will stick his foot in the NFL pool and decide that it’s a little too cold to jump in. Losing only Stevie Brown and BG puts nine guys back in 2010, so the simple default of improvement from experience sets in here. Woolfolk and Warren should lock down the corners if GROB finds two safeties that can play at an average to above average level of play.

5 defensive players with 2010 expectations.

1. Justin Turner
   The 5 star from Ohio redshirted last year after much speculation that he would get his shot to prove himself on gameday
2. Craig Roh
   Roh has a hell of a motor and only stands to get a lot better. He’s played relatively well and was very undersized as a true freshman. Combine his experience with an entire offseason of bulking up and Roh should have a huge impact in 2010.
3. Brandon Smith
   All Brandon’s that play at Michigan are good right? Let’s hope some of Brandon Graham’s dominance rubbed off on Brandon Smith. He’s always played well on special teams and saw some time in the final two games in the defensive backfield. He’ll get his opportunity to be a starter and make an impact, whether it’s at safety or the quick position Stevie Brown was playing.
4. Will Campbell
   Will got some decent experience as a true freshman, while he didn’t always play well, he should anchor that D-line in 2010 along with Mike Martin, Ryan Van Bergen, and Roh.
5. Donovan Warren
   I hesitated to include DW in this list, but he could stand to have an absolute breakthrough season if he comes back. His play was solid at best as the season progressed. If he comes back, he’ll be the spokesperson for the defense.

What do I do now?
Watch Michigan basketball have a decent season, hopefully better than last year. Watch Michigan’s hockey team recover from a rough start. Assume that the Michigan football program can stay out of the negative headline category this offseason. Let time do its thing. Then as next fall approaches, get psyched about a team that should give Michigan a winning season and a bowl game. It’s fun being optimistic, because that means we’re talking 8 or 9 wins for this team next season.

Another ugly Saturday – Michigan gets pushed around in Madison. One loss away from a second consecutive bowl-less season, and one win away from what would be a season-salvaging, bowl-qualifying win against Ohio State. The mood surrounding this Michigan program will take a 180 if Michigan can pull an upset at home next week. The likelihood of it happening? Well, slim at best, but hey it’s been done before.

The defense again was absolutely terrible. I have finally accepted that Michigan simply doesn’t have the talent on that side of the ball to compete for an entire game. There are ok moments, but against Wisconsin they were pushed around and the lack of depth seems to wear them down by the midway point of the 3rd quarter. I saw guys like Stevie Brown unable to get off a block for about 12 yards. The talent just ain’t there, and it will be critical for guys like Justin Turner, Brandon Smith, and other RR recruits to step it up next year.

The offense showed more improvement, has success. Tate, for the second week in a row, played very well and put points on the board when he had opportunities. Roy Roundtree again impressed and it looks like he will continue to be a force in this offense for a few years. It’s tough, as Rich Rod mentioned in the post game presser, when you only get three second half possessions you can’t get into any kind of offensive rhythm. Tate completed 20 out of 26 passes and was accurate for most of the day – with the exception of the deep ball to Greg Matthews that would have been a touchdown.

Looking ahead to Ohio State. I said two weeks ago before Michigan took one in the nuts to Purdue, that Ohio State will be coming into the season finale emotionally drained. Two weeks of huge match ups – one at Penn State, then at home against Iowa to get the Rose Bowl berth with an overtime win, will take a lot out of the emotional tank for a team. That being said, Ohio State will naturally lack some focus and intensity because they know they are heading to Pasadena on January 1st. Michigan will have to play a near perfect game and get a couple turnovers. If Michigan wins, Tate will have to be a hero and play beyond his years. More on the OSU game later in the week. Stay Tuned.

Don’t Panic. With fans nearing the ledge, now is a good time to use perspective and see more of the big picture. This team is so very young, new defensive coordinator, no defensive depth, etc. The things that RR and the fans that actually back him have been saying before this season even started. The future is bright, the improved offensive production is a fantastic sign. A simply mediocre defense would have put three more games in the win column this season. Don’t Panic.

Improvements in Year 2. Here are a few improvements from year 1 to year 2 under Rich Rod:

• Points/game
• Yards/game
• Passing yards/game
• QB Passer Rating
• QB completion percentage
• Unforced turnover margin
• Punt and kick return yardage
• Net punting yardage
• Field goals scored and field goal percentage
• Wins

So improvements are being made on the offensive side of the ball and on special teams. Now, if that damn defense could improve next year. Again, don’t panic.

• RR on Minor’s shoulder: “It’s concerning. It’s his shoulder now. Talking to trainers, it’s day-to-day.”
• On Carlos Brown – knee is still bothering him a little bit.
• RR on OSU: “If you coach and play here and, you understand this rivalry every day.” “Legends are made in the Michigan – Ohio State game”
• RR on Pryor: “I think he’s done extremely well.”
• RR on the defense: “We’re still constantly evaluation” “Still searching for the right combination.”
• RR: “Most important for us the next couple Februaries is signing” some defensive help.
• RR on simulating Pryor difficulty: “6-6, runs a 4.3″ “If I had a guy like that, he probably wouldn’t be on the scout team.”
• RR on what a win would mean for him and the team: “More than anything for our seniors, they haven’t beaten Ohio State yet.” “And bowl game possibility.”
• RR on Justin Boren: “I don’t know if it does much good to go back in the past.” Then talked about closeness of his “family”
• RR on all this losing: “It eats at your soul” “I don’t coach football. I live it.”
• RR continues to elaborate on the losing: “I’ve lost before. I’m not used to this. My staff isn’t used to this. It gnaws you to the bone.” “For a lot of reasons, it has been more challenging and more taxing. But you have to stay true to yourself and your family.” “We’re going to be back there where I want us to be and everybody wants us to be.”
• RR: “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Sometimes when you’re losing, it’s hard to see that.”
• RR on whether he is happy with the coaching staff: “I feel very good about our staff. We have great people on our staff” “What I have to do is evaluate what we’re doing scheme-wise.”
• RR on certain unique issues: “There are a couple issues that come up that aren’t in coaching 101.”
• RR on his system fitting at Michigan: “What would be the difference between fitting at Michigan and fitting at West Virginia or somewhere else?”
• RR on Tate and Denard: “They’ll be so much better once we get more sessions with them.”
• RR talking more about OSU and saying that his first day on the job, before his introductory press conference, got a beat Ohio State button. Still on his desk.
• RR: “I’m going to give you a newsflash here. I’m going to coach as hard as I can every game.”
• RR on the rivalries: “Isn’t that what’s fun about college football?” – then goes on to say that the 1969 game is what really stood out to him before he came to Michigan.

My apologies for the less than thorough notes on what Rich Rod had to say – I was unable to watch – so your updates are from various twitter sources. Ryan Van Bergen steps up to the podium after Rodriguez.

Right – shouldn’t we be screaming to fire Rich Rodriguez at this point? Many fans are doing just that and think that Rodriguez has driven a proud program straight into the ground. I get it – the winningest program in all of the land has hit hard times – a rock bottom. Fire the man in charge seems like the only thing to do. Streaks have been broken and people are pissed.

If you are screaming for RR’s head and think he should be fired, you are not accepting the reality of the situation. For you RR hating Michigan fan – please read below:

• Read this from a post on Mgoblog – The Decimated Defense – Part 1 and The Decimated Defense – Part 2
• Building on the first point in my words, this defense is atrocious. Understand that these coaches are working with subpar talent – and have the worst defense in the Big Ten. Two walk-ons are in the starting line up. Tell me when the last time you could have said that about a UM D. The defensive coaches are limited in what they can dial up because the safeties are unbelievably bad. I appreciate their effort as I appreciated the efforts of Steve Threet and Nick Sheridan last year, but as I said regarding the QB’s of 2008, they are not cut out for the level of play that we are used to as Michigan fans. Yesterday, Michigan gave up over 8 yards on first down plays. It’s amazing Michigan can even come close to winning a game when the defense allows an average of over 8 yards on first down plays.
• The offense has improved dramatically in year 2. This is as expected, but I don’t think it’s something you can dismiss relative to “we should fire RichRod” rants. With the exception of the Penn State and Illinois game, the offense has produced this year with true freshmen playing at the most important position. Yes, the running back position is experienced and has depth, but injuries have limited Michigan’s best back.
• Drastic changes don’t always happen overnight. Sometimes, yes. The transition from Lloyd Carr’s program to Rich Rodriguez’s program – not so much. This has been a drastic change in just about every phase of Michigan’s football program. From facilities, to coaches, to schemes, etc. There isn’t much besides the winged helmets that’s the same under RR. I screamed for a change towards the end of Lloyd’s time, and a change is what I got. Success hasn’t happened as quickly as I’d like, but sometimes a little pain up front is necessary for long-term success. The impatience of Michigan fans is ridiculous, because many fans don’t know how to accept the reality of this situation. Coaching only goes so far when there is a lack of talent and depth on one side of the ball.
• More on the reality front. Even if Michigan loses it’s last two games against Wisconsin and Ohio State – Rich Rod is not getting fired. Deal with it. RR is going to get an opportunity to bring his players in to the system and be successful. If you know anything about football, and you understand what is talked about in my first point (the Decimated Defense Mgoblog posts), then you can appreciate RR comments about the process of building this program.
• EDIT: The consequences of Michigan firing RR at this point would be huge, and the program may not recover for many years. What other coach wants to walk into the same situation RR did? On top of that, know that if you do come here to coach and don’t produce one and a half years in – you will be fired. It’s in the best interest of the Michigan football program to give Rich Rodriguez four years to prove himself.